Medical statistics are certainly not to be dismissed, there are standard statistical errors associated therewith, but that methodology accounts for such errors and remains a very valid measure of morbidity. The lifetime risk of lung cancer (not for any disease, but lung cancer alone) from smoking is about 1 in 10 (my original statement to which you took issue was 1 in 11).
Here are two other sources, one from the Harvard School of Public Health:
http://www.hsph.harvard.edu/lungcancer/
(Fifth bullet point says 10% risk on Lung Cancer Susceptibility and Outcome Studies. Note the study is recruiting patients, these are not “hypothetical patients” as you believe statistical estimates are not valid.)
And another of many sources:http://www.chestx-ray.com/Smoke/Smoke.html
There are other risks associated with smoking (which, I maintain is a personal choice for each of us to accept or reject) but the lifetime risk of contracting lung cancer of smoking is about 10%. And these cited sources are not hypothetical.
I can say anything I want but unless I give the studies to back it up, it doesn't mean anything.
I don't look at media makeovers, I look at the studies behind the media makeovers.
I can say with absolute certainty that 100% of all people that breath air die. Therefore, breathing air makes people die.
Statistically, it's true, but the cause of death is erroneous.
Unless you can show me the studies that back up these claims, I have to take the claims with a rather large grain of salt considering the current bais against smokers.