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A Zawahiri tape and the “Good News” banner preceded a UBL tape right about this time last year.

Any significance with a red banner this time rather than a blue one?

UBL last seen on video - - 10/29/04 (6/29 tape last year turned out to be audio).

A video appearance justifies an elevation in the general threat level (IMHO).

http://abclocal.go.com/kabc/story?section=nation_world&id=4315765

Bin Laden to Issue Videotape Tribute to Slain al-Qaida in Iraq

(excerpt)

CAIRO, Egypt, June 28, 2006 - Osama bin Laden will issue a videotaped message paying tribute to slain al-Qaida in Iraq chief Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, a message posted on an Islamic militant Web site said Wednesday.

The message did not say when the video would be posted or whether bin Laden himself would appear in it. The al-Qaida leader has issued three audiotapes this year but has not appeared in a video since one issued on Oct. 29, 2004.

A similar “advertisement” was issued for an al-Zarqawi tribute put out last week by bin Laden’s deputy, Ayman al-Zawahri. The advertisement appeared on the Web a day before the video was posted on Friday. . .

The note for the bin Laden video was posted on a Web forum where militants often post messages. It was in the form of a blue banner signed by As-Sahab, the al-Qaida production branch.

The banner flashed the message, “Good News Soon,” followed by a picture of a smiling al-Zarqawi and the words, “A tribute to the martyr of the Islamic nation and prince of the martyrdom-seekers, Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, God rest his soul, from Sheik Osama bin Laden, God preserve him.” The banner then flashes a picture of bin Laden.

http://abclocal.go.com/wabc/story?section=nation_world&id=5450363

Al-Qaida releases new video tape
Ayman al-Zawahri is seen on the tape

(excerpt)

(Egypt-AP, July 4, 2007) - Al-Qaida’s No. 2 has issued a new video tape calling on Muslims to unite in jihad, or holy war, and support the Islamist movement in Iraq, a U.S.-based intelligence monitoring group said Wednesday. . .

An Internet site deemed close to al-Qaida’s leadership announced earlier Wednesday that “good news” would be coming soon.

The flashing red banner was interpreted by several other Islamist web sites as a sign that Osama bin Laden would issue a new message soon. It was not immediately clear whether it was in fact referring to his deputy’s new tape.

The pattern seems to be similar to last year - - calendar timing, “Good News Soon” banner, Zawahiri as the set-up man for UBL, and the eulogizing of Abu Musab al-Zarqawi.

Here, “Zarqawi” may represent his AQI (al Qaeda-Iraq) cells in the US and the UK and Zawahiri may be indirectly addressing/signaling them along with other potential homegrown cells that have joined al Qaeda-Core (possibly calling themselves al Qaeda-USA) but have not yet declared themselves.

http://siteinstitute.org/bin/articles.cgi?ID=publications300407&Category=publications&Subcategory=0

” . . . Zawahiri also encourages greater support for the Islamic State of Iraq despite it lacking “necessary qualifications”, courts Kurds to join jihad, and lauds Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, the deceased Emir of al-Qaeda in Iraq, formerly Tawhid Wal Jihad, for his opening of a path for greater unity in the ranks of Mujahideen by being among the first to pledge to Usama bin Laden and join al-Qaeda. He adds that other groups have also joined the organization, though they prefered that this news not yet be announced, but the declarations will come soon. Iraq is also the launchpad from which Zawahiri launches his diatribe against Saudi Arabia, using aforementioned evidence to warn that Iraq will fall if the Saudis gain significant influence in its politics.” . . .