I’d like to “revise and extend my remarks” on the Senate doubling the bounty . . .
While I think most of them voted for this without much thought, and in the spirit of fear and political self-protection, it actually may be useful (the law of unintended consequences). If an attack against us succeeds, whether it is the size of 9/11 or much larger, we will end up going into Pakistan’s tribal areas I’m sure. That is a very bad idea, but will be our only option at that point. Pakistan is already unstable, and with a population of 165 million (over half the size of the United States), an arsenal of nuclear weapons, and Islamist sympathizers in their security establishment, their coming apart would risk even more calamities down the road.
The tribal regions may shelter that AQ leadership, but if they are forced to retreat into the cities, there is a greater chance someone may give them up for cash. The tribal elders will not betray someone they are sheltering. That kind of binding code is not present in the cities. And the tribal regions have no concept or use for such a large amount of money, but city dwellers would be more sophisticated on average (being more likely to know what $50 million would mean and being literate enough to read the flyers in the first place).
The whole scenario is a nightmare. Imagine trying to chase Saddam through a nation coming apart at the seams with seven times the population of Iraq, rogue generals, dozens of nuclear weapons, and an AQ leadership on the run inside the country looking to buy some of them, and you truly have a nightmare. It took us 9 months to find Saddam inside Iraq with 125,000 troops on the ground. We won’t have that kind of time (or troops) in Pakistan. There are no good options.
You have to kick the bounties up now (before an attack and the ensuing chaos) and publicize it big time in Pakistani cities (not the tribal areas). But as long as AQ leaders stay in the hands of “true believers” no amount of money will matter. And (unlike the Iraqis at first) if we invade Pakistan looking for AQ leadership, close to 100% of the Pakistanis will be against us and not likely to cooperate.
So give them both a positive incentive (massive bounties before the fact) and negative incentive (threat of invasion) to get someone to cough them up once they are on the move from the mountains. Once we go in there, the place will completely turn against us (more than it is already), so this would be the “diplomatic route” that would be exercised as we begin a build-up to go in and take the place apart looking for them.
(Remembering that if you harbor a terrorist, you are then just as much an enemy as the terrorist - - as the Taliban learned after 9/11)
BTTT