How do you know? Much depends on how Iraq turns out and how successful we will be in combatting militant Islamic fundamentalism. We have not resolved entitlement reform and immigration reform or even started down the path to doing so. In fact, one could argue that Bush has made both issues worse, e.g., prescription drugs being added to Medicare and the lack of secure borders despite having a window of opportunity due to 9/11.
Most of us won't be around to read it regardless. At this point, Bush's legacy may more closely resemble Carter's than Truman's.
I don't believe this will be the case. The ME (because of our actions through the leadership of GWB) will look much different within a decade. The values of freedom, self-worth and of their own style of quasi ME democracy are taking root as we speak.
GWB will be seen as a man of resolve that basically single handily dragged the world into seeing the enemy we face...and of taking the fight to them. Understanding the only long term solution was to drag the ME out of the dark ages (while in the mean time taking the fight to those enemies looking to do us harm).
Standing firm in establishing a new Iraqi Gov't will be seen in history as incredibly bold (especially because of the political hit he took in doing so). True leadership always looks better with time...then it does while it is happening.
To suggest GWB would resemble Carter only shows you have an axe of sorts to grind and won't be intellectually honest. GWB inherited a recession (he didn't cause one like JC). GWB has seen 6 straight years of expansion and an economy that is thriving despite the rise in energy costs.
GWB has overseen an economy that inherited a recession, inherited a stock market bubble, sustained the largest attack on our homeland and weathered the largest natural disaster to boot. Yet, his policies have helped to keep our economy robust (while cutting taxes across the board...and he didn't even raise FICA taxes like R.R. to boot).
Lastly, JC was a man of very little leadership or willingness to make tough decisions. GWB is anything but (agree with him or not).
No, history will be very kind to GWB.