The best plans don’t survive the first contact in battle. Multiply that estimate by a factor of 12 to 15 would be more accurate under the best circumstances. Name on “police action” that has lasted less than 2 years.
“Partition? Maybe so. But it could be dangerous, because that would mean that the Sunni Arabs controlled even more oil than they already do. “
Would that be so bad? Looking at it in terms of stability. The Sunni’s have shown they value the money. The Shiia don’t even value human life and are committed more to flawed ideals than making money.
I don’t think Iran is a similar case to Iraq. A lot of people think the best bet is to get the Revolutionary Guard off their backs and let the Iranians work it out. As long as we are still in Iraq and Afghanistan, the country is fairly well contained. A lot of Iranians, especially the students, would love to stage a revolution, but they can’t do it while the guard has overwhelming power.
It would have been even better if we had dealt with Syria several years ago, but that still seems the best route. We could stay there forever if we tried to set up our own regime.