Sabato makes some good points and some bad ones, but an ‘expert’ like him should know this is just stupid:
“Moreover, the yearning among the public for the end of President Bush’s reign is palpable, and it may simply be impossible to stop any Democratic ticket in November 2008. Put aside Democratic antipathy toward Bush; most Independents and many Republicans aren’t listening to Bush anymore, and that’s a big problem for him and his party.”
Bush is not on the 2008 ticket. That would almost be like saying Reagan couldn’t beat Carter in 1980 becuase of public “antipathy” toward Nixon. In fact, if Reagan had beat Ford in that close 1976 GOP convention, we may never have had to put up w/ Carter (or the rise in terrorism that resulted).
Focus on this: “and it may simply be impossible to stop any Democratic ticket”
Anyone who follows politics knows dems have only exceeded 50% of the vote once in the past 40+ years (at least). Carter barely got above 50% because of both 1) Vietnam and 2) Watergate. That’s why the dems are so desperate to get something out of all these AG, Cheney, Rove fishing expeditions.
They know they can’t win an honest election. For Sabato to imply they are now a juggernaut implies he’s a moron.
If Reagan had won the election of 1976, he would have had to leave office on Jan. 20, 1985. True, the Middle East might not be quite so messed up if Carter hadn’t put the mullahs in power in Iran, but the Soviet Union might still be in existence if Reagan hadn’t been President during the years Gorbachev was trying to reform the USSR.