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To: Gengis Khan
If outsourcing had been a one way traffic for jobs with the kind of effect media and politicians have been projecting it, US exports would not have increased from $1.2 trillion to $1.4 trillion from 2005 to 2006, 13% increase in just one single year.

False. The imports increased faster still. There are a rather large number of explanations which confound your simplistic conclusion. The simplest explanation is that those US exporters are merely incorporating their foreign-made components and re-exporting the final product...netting the "systems integration" business.

It is still a losing proposition. As the persistent two-to-one trade imbalance portends.

Plus, you fail to realize that there is nothing permanent about the continued increase in exports. It is reasonable to surmise that is instead merely an ephemeral kind of "last gasp." To wit:

This is usually a "one-trick pony" once the foreign components suppliers get sufficiently experienced to do their own final product assembly. The Korean car manufacturers are a perfect case in point. And now China, with its $10 billion in car parts shipped to General Motors in the U.S. alone...is on the verge of exporting cars to the U.S. Their ultimate intention is manifestly to eradicate our domestic car manufacturing capability...and how many times do we see Chinese expatriates lamenting that "their people" don't have cars...sigh.

Meanwhile, at the aerospace end of manufacturing, Boeing is outsourcing like crazy to try to stave off the mostly-subsidized Airbus "competition". The 787 will be primarily built around the world. It was a decision of desperation as much as inspiration. To date, it is clearly making headway. But that portends the very same "one trick pony" situation. Japan will have an immense advantage to do its own systems integration when it makes the wings...and essentially has a monopoly thereto.

More important than jobs alone...is our national independence. As Alexander Hamilton and George Washington taught us...or at least the better students...we need our independence at the cost of our treasure, blood and lives if need be.

23 posted on 06/20/2007 3:33:02 PM PDT by Paul Ross (Ronald Reagan-1987:"We are always willing to be trade partners but never trade patsies.")
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To: Paul Ross
“False. The imports increased faster still.”

Yes, true. Its not that that exports are rising but imports are rising faster. So what? Neither of them is any indication to economic downturn. In fact quite the contrary, both of them are indications that the economy is doing better. Not only are the exports increasing but there is greater domestic consumer demand for foreign goods. As long as there is no drop in production levels (and there is none yet, domestic production is only increasing) I don't see any danger to US economy. More buying and more selling is sign of healthy economic activity, doesn't matter which one out paces the other. Whats not healthy is drop in export levels (or worse drop in production levels) in spite of trade surplus. It means you are selling less but you are buying even less. You are saving some dollar no doubt buy you aren’t earning any.

Another big myth of international economic is that “trade deficit is bad”. Its only true for the short run.
If you are buying more from outside then what you are able to sell them back and you are doing so with dollars, in the short run you may not get your dollars back. The country buying form you will have a large US dollar reserve. What do you think they do with all the US dollars in their reserve? They will either buy something from the US or give it to some other country in return for some other goods (who in turn will use it to buy something from the US). Like trade surplus, trade deficit also evens-out in the long run.

25 posted on 06/21/2007 9:20:08 AM PDT by Gengis Khan
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To: Paul Ross

“Plus, you fail to realize that there is nothing permanent about the continued increase in exports. “

There is nothing permanent about anything.

“This is usually a “one-trick pony” once the foreign components suppliers get sufficiently experienced to do their own final product assembly. The Korean car manufacturers are a perfect case in point.”

Foreign cars themsselves dont have “all Japanese”, “all German” or “all Korean” components in them. Many of their own productions are yet outsourced to third countries. Thats how it works in a globalised world. No country produces the complete item.

Plus you dont consider the effects of reverse outsourcing when Japanese, Korean or Indian companies open up plants in the US. In a globalised world its companies and not countries (political entities) that possess, control or share techological know-how. Any country that has the human and capital resource and had developed adequate infrustructure can dulicate such capability and

As for the Chinese, I would consider their case differently. They represent a significant security threat mostly because their government plan to use their industrial and economic capability for hegemonic designs.


26 posted on 06/21/2007 9:50:48 AM PDT by Gengis Khan
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To: Paul Ross
“Meanwhile, at the aerospace end of manufacturing, Boeing is outsourcing like crazy to try to stave off the mostly-subsidized Airbus “competition”. The 787 will be primarily built around the world. It was a decision of desperation as much as inspiration. To date, it is clearly making headway. But that portends the very same “one trick pony” situation. Japan will have an immense advantage to do its own systems integration when it makes the wings...and essentially has a monopoly thereto. “

No single country will have complete monopoly over any industry and globalization will ensure that. There will be more interdependence among countries. Companies like Boeing cannot continue the way they have done until now. Countries like Brazil, Russia and even India are building aerospace capabilities similar to Boeing or Airbus. These companies have to make some trade off or face extinction. You cannot just close your doors, shut your eyes and believe that you are protected from competition. US is no longer the largest civil aviation market in the world. There are larger markets in Asia, particularly emerging economies like India and China will witness far greater amount of civil aviation in next decade. In next 5 years India alone will be spending $30-35 billion on buying passengers jets. Boeing has got the largest piece of that pie. In return for access to the largest emerging civil aviation market, India has the bargaining leverage to demand that Boeing joint co-production in India. Its a win-win for both India and US. US gets to manufacture most of it while India gets to produce some to keep the costs low.

As for the “one trick pony” situation...... no trick lasts forever. That applies to all countries and especially companies. You have to find new tricks all the time. The Japanese themselves are having trouble keeping the industries from going to other countries in Asia. China will have trouble keeping intact their manufacturing industry edge after other lower cost countries in Asia builds their manufacturing base.

“More important than jobs alone...is our national independence. As Alexander Hamilton and George Washington taught us...or at least the better students...we need our independence at the cost of our treasure, blood and lives if need be.”

The best way to preserve independence is to allow open competition. Thats the American way and that way alone will ensure success.

27 posted on 06/21/2007 10:20:16 AM PDT by Gengis Khan
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