Posted on 06/19/2007 1:13:57 PM PDT by Reform Canada
Hawaii Reporter Freedom to Report Real News
Deeper Into the Dustbin of Silly Science The Continuing Collapse of the Global Warming Hypothesis By Michael R. Fox Ph.D., 6/17/2007 8:14:04 PM
The recent flood of scientific papers and books being published undermine the global warming hypothesis. See for example (http://tinyurl.com/34jx2m). The more carefully the pillars of the hypothesis are examined the more implausible it becomes. The man-made global warming hypothesis is failing scientific scrutiny.
Remarkably, the warmers are popular, being funded and supported enormously, spreading dubious science. The unlearned lessons are that science can not be settled by money, fame, political power, or building consensus. Science progresses only by the evidence. This logic has been known for centuries and its violation likewise has led to troubling consequences as Machiavelli recognized:
"A hypothesis is always preferable to the truth, for we tailor a hypothesis to fit our opinion of the truth, whereas the truth is only its own awkward self. Ergo, never discover the truth when a hypothesis will do." -- Niccolo Machiavelli, The Prince (1513).
We now know many of the failings of the manmade global warming hypothesis as presented by the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and its supporters.
* The widely heralded “hockey stick graph” of temperatures over the last 1000 years, featured in the Third Assessment Report of the IPCC, is very flawed (http://tinyurl.com/369r23). The authors misused many data contained in many studies. They also devised a computer algorithm to create the hockey stick graph. Unfortunately by using well-concealed computer manipulations, the algorithm could also produce hockey stick graphs using tables of random numbers. The IPCC had expected the nations of the world to use their chart as a basis for changing the world’s energy habits. This political ruse revealed that the IPCC was not being honest with the nations of the world.
* The snows of Kilimanjaro have been the subject of controversy as well. Al Gore used it as a basis for his claim that global warming was the cause of the snow cap shrinking. He didn’t mention that the shrinking began more than 100 years ago, long before man-made CO2 was any problem. Ironically it was another warmer who discovered that the shrinking of the snow cap of Kilimanjaro was not likely due to warming but to changes in land use and rainfall patterns (http://tinyurl.com/yv4536).
This author just couldn’t keep his global warming biases to himself and went on to say in the same article: “…. global warming is, indeed, responsible for the fact that nearly every other glacier around the globe is melting away. Kilimanjaro just happens to be the worst possible case study.
Rising nearly four miles from the plains of eastern Tanzania, Kilimanjaro has seen its glaciers decline steadily for well over a century — since long before humans began pumping large amounts of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere….
Most of the world's glaciers didn't begin their precipitous declines until the 1970s, when measurable global warming first appeared.”
Remarkably this statement is grotesquely in error. As reported in Science (vol. 308, April 28, 2005, p 675ff), 169 glaciers world-wide have been retreating since 1750. It is important to note that these measurements of glacier lengths are taken from the glaciers fields themselves, not computer models, or other forms of guessing. Also note that this shrinkage preceded the era of automobiles and coal plants as well as the era of elevated CO2. This means that natural forces, such as changes in the Sun, probably were causing the glacial melting. It certainly wasn’t man-made CO2.
This is important since in a more scientific world, this glacier research would end the controversy about the theory that man-made CO2 is behind global warming. If manmade CO2 were the cause of the modest warming (only 0.6C over 100 years according to the IPCC), this theory would have to explain why glaciers have been retreating since 1750. It cannot do so, and therefore the theory fails.
The current hysteria over global warming is not based upon scientific findings. It is based upon motivations of power, money, influence and a dangerous world view aimed at restricting energy use in the US.
A commenter at http://www.climateaudit.org made the following telling observation: “Let's face it, the world of the climate modeler is an easy one: produce a forecast, discard all contrary modeling runs, travel to lots of nice destinations for conferences, decry all skeptics as tools of capitalism, hobnob with political leaders, apply for funding for next even-more-mega-expensive computer system, lather, rinse and repeat.
They’ve got the field to themselves and they’ll never be willing to accept competition in their key markets from private enterprise which is by definition evil. The great advantage of climate modeling is power and authority without having any skin in the game.”
This issue has dangerous implications for nations who benefit from the use of electrical energy and fossil fuels. Its time that environmental and energy policies were based upon science, not dangerous invalidated theories.
Michael R. Fox, Ph.D., a science and energy reporter for Hawaii Reporter and a science analyist for the Grassroot Institute of Hawaii, is retired and now lives in Eastern Washington. He has nearly 40 years experience in the energy field. He has also taught chemistry and energy at the University level. His interest in the communications of science has led to several communications awards, hundreds of speeches, and many appearances on television and talk shows. He can be reached via email at mailto:mike@foxreport.org
HawaiiReporter.com reports the real news, and prints all editorials submitted, even if they do not represent the viewpoint of the editors, as long as they are written clearly. Send editorials to mailto:Malia@HawaiiReporter.com
Guest Editorials... © 2007 Hawaii Reporter, Inc.
ping
The 1970s is when we were told another Ice Age was coming. After that unusually cold era, just returning to "normal" (whatever that is) would require "global warming". Be suspicious of any warming argument that uses the 1970s as a baseline. That's like a pro taking a triple bogey on the first hole and then having announcers talk about how much better his game is getting when he pars a few holes.
That quotation is a probable fabrication -- it's certainly not in any translation I've ever seen.
There is a lot of crackpot science out there besides global warming. It would be a popular feature on FR and debate would be intense with ultimately many deserved and some undeserved bannings. Should be fun.
No one will see this report either.
“An hypothesis is always more believable than the truth, for it has been tailored to resemble our ideas of truth whereas the truth is just its own clumsy self. Ergo, never discover the truth when an hypothesis will do.” Nicoli Machiavelli [SIC] as quoted by Professor John D. Isaacs, Chair, SCCWRP Scientific Consulting Board, 1969-1980, in testimony before the U.S. Congress, 1978 (Isaacs 1978). This tongue-in-cheek usage of a Renaissance quote, scrawled across the blackboard of a smoke-filled conference room...[SNIP]
Here's a source to "The Prince": http://www.constitution.org/mac/prince00.htm I agree, it's difficult to ascribe this quote to Machiavelli's "The Prince".
Bump
As this was happening the alarmists got strident and went out on limbs like Mann's hockey stick that were easy to chop off. In reaction they have gone further and further out so now the "science" of alarmist positive feedback warming is now about wierd things like permafrost melt, sulfur dioxide rising from the ocean floor and strong hurricanes transferring moisture and warmth to the poles. All of these positive feedbacks are shaky science and even if true would be much longer term than the "10 year" tipping point hypothesizers suggest.
All that is left of alarmist global warming is the politicians and their numerous dead end scientist friends.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.