Great analysis.
Rudy doesn’t have a shot at winning anything in Iowa . . . not the Ames Straw Poll, not the GOP caucus, and not the general election.
He has many strikes against him, namely his stances on social issues and his “big city guy” persona. Doens’t play well in the heartland.
Fred would be interesting. I think he stands out as a “should come in a strong second” candidate for the Ames Straw Poll. Nobody would expect him to beat Romney . . . and he won’t (barring some major gaffes by Romney or some major home-runs by Thompson.)
Tommy T. will make a solid showing.
Sam Brownback and Huckabee could make a good showing . . . but if Fred gets in then their support may get diluted. It will be interesting to see.
You forgot Tancredo and I wouldn’t dismiss him.