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The Rudy supporters are really starting to hear Fred’s hoofbeats coming from behind them...
I can understand why supporters of Rudy Giuliani want to freeze time right now (actually two months ago would be preferable) and make all the decisions based on where everything is at present. It all looked so good, and there didn’t appear to be any real serious challengers to the right of Rudy, and his 9-11 name recognition was still carrying him over everyone else. Now, things are starting to change a bit.
The campaign is starting, the jockeying for positions is beginning, and the field is about to narrow. When it narrows, people who support one candidate who drops out will have to choose another candidate. As the lower tier drops out this might yield 10%-20% of voters who will now pick one of the remaining top tier. Some of these will be the Undecideds who will make at least an initial decision when faced with a fewer number of choices (many non political junkies freeze up when presented with ten choices). They might find it easier to choose from 3 or 4. After this shakeout, there will be some movement of the top tier, and momentum will shift in unpredictable directions, and external national or world events might intervene. At this point people are paying attention, name recognition and issues recognition will be high for each candidate among the primary voters, and polling will become more valid— both primary polling and head-to-head hypothetical general election matchups.
Then after this has settled, there will likely be two candidates who are ahead of the other one or two. I think this will be two of three: Rudy, Mitt, Fred. I expect Fred to be one of them but no way to be sure. Once this occurs then it is down to two people, and since the polls will be more accurate, then the electability questions will really start to become highly relevant and might sway some voters to switch to the more electable candidate for the purpose of keeping Hillobama out of the White House silverware.
Until we play out this process, the data is not particularly valid from any polls except to show overall trends and as it pertains to selecting the top tier of candidates. To try and stop time now because your candidate is ahead is not possible, nor would it be a good thing. Everyone knows when the primaries are, and when the general is. Everyone knows that this is when you need to be in perfect position— not a day earlier or later.
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