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June 4, 2007
<--I can say with confidence that this forecaster has never seen the likes of this:
...a Category 4 (130 knots, or 240 kph) hurricane over the northern Arabian Sea. The wind speeds are estimated (as of 0600 Hours GMT) by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC). A look at full-disk infrared imagery (from the India Met. Dept.--IMD) helps to afford better perspective on TC Gonu and South Asia:
There is TC Gonu, unusually powerful and unusually far to the northwest--and it is headed towards the northwest. Thus, the first land in the path of Gonu, as it is now moving, would be easternmost Oman. And this is where the latest JTWC advisory takes Gonu--ashore southeast of Masqat. As far as numerical forecast models, the GFS is still handling Gonu poorly, but the ECMWF, which has been remarkably prescient on this amazing storm, is still taking a powerful low ashore in SE Oman--and even into interior eastern Arabia. I cannot rule out extreme, unusual weather in UAE, Qatar and Saudi Arabia to at least Al Ahsa and the southern/middle Najd (Riyadh).
Hopefully, more on Gonu later today (Monday).
