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I think you are missing the re-alignment factor concerning the primaries. With "Super February" in play, Giuliani can take a large number of delegates while Romney and Thompson split the smaller, conservative states. You might take a look at the numbers, you may be surprised.

The Republicans have no bench right now. Romney is the strongest candidate and Giuliani a close second. All the other candidates have no chance to get in on this round

Thompson's has obvious strengths in a general election.
A short, lackluster political career, which lessens the attacks on his voting record.
He's been out of politics for a while, giving him the opportunity to issue general statements and speeches with no rebuttals available against him, crafting a good solid persona.
He's an actor, so he works well in a scripted performance.
If nominated against Obama, Clinton, or Edwards, all of whom have equally short and lackluster Senate records, there can be no "I'm more qualified" arguments made by the Dems.

His negatives seem to be:
He was a long-time lobbyist, which in the Dem playbook will equal Jack Abramoff.
His overall Senate career is the equivalent to Bill Frist. Same ACU rating, same period of service, no big-time conservative legislation to boost him.
The "Bob Dole" factor. Thompson is not young blood. He's an older white guy, which limits his appeal to younger voters.
He was a major backer of CFR, joining him at the hip with McCain.

We'll see when the convention comes. At this early date, it looks to be a brokered convention where all bets are off. Open up the smoky-backrooms!

Of course, anything can happen.

I remember how worried I was in 2000 about McCain who seemed to have a commanding lead in the early primaries.

Thank God, Bush pulled ahead in South Carolina and never looked back.

(and, if you don’t like Bush, please don’t say so...I’ve heard enough of that crap... and, he’s not running)

Oh, that comment is not directed to you jonathanmo, just a general thing.