Sez you, from the comfort of the certainty of the future looking backward.
Since you can establish such certainties as to KNOW what consequences flow inevitably from what actions, why aren’t you Secretary of State? I’m sure Bush could benefit from such foreknowlege on sujects like what to do about a nuclear Iran and N. Korea.
I don't have to look backwards from the future to know what Lincoln knew. I just have to listen to the Lincoln and his close associates to know that he realized the consequences of his resupplying Ft. Sumter would be war.