Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

To: cogitator
The change from solar max to solar min is about 0.2%, so if this was true we'd see much more solar-driven variability over the 11-year solar cycle. The climate sensitivity to radiative forcing is not this strong, by far.

Not so.

You cannot ignore the inertia of the overall thermal system. It takes a long time to heat the earth and the seas so short term cycles are damped. It's like a moving average or a low pass filter - the short term effects are damped out but the long term trends are still there.

60 posted on 05/16/2007 7:16:54 AM PDT by InterceptPoint
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 59 | View Replies ]


To: InterceptPoint
Climate sensitivity of Earth to solar irradiance: update (PDF)

Note that three of the four individuals noted in the Acknowledgments are skeptics (Christy, Knappenberger, and of course, Michaels).

The Sun and Climate

Kind of old, but has some numbers, notably:

" The sensitivity of climate to solar radiation changes, as defined earlier, is not well known. A conservative estimate is that a 0.1 percent change in solar total radiation will bring about a temperature response of 0.06 to 0.2°C, providing the change persists long enough for the climate system to adjust. This could take ten to 100 years."

Using just this number, let's say that solar radiation increased 0.5% in the 20th century. The maximum expected temperature response would be 1 deg. C (minimum 0.3 C). The observed increase over the entire 20th century was 0.6 C, which falls in this range.

However, over the past 25 years, the global temperature increase has been 0.8 C. The decadal maximum solar radiation increase is 3 x 0.05% = 0.15% -- from the numbers above, this could result in a maximum 0.3 C increase due to solar radiation. Observations indicate much more than that. As from this figure, the late 20th century temperature rise (into the 21st) doesn't appear to be attributable to solar forcing. And studies of the entire 20th century have stated that about 0.2 C of the 0.6 C could be attributed to solar forcing, with a more significant solar contribution in the early part of the century.

It's clear from multiple indicators that solar variability has become one of the bastions of scientifically-minded climate change skeptics. I view that position as assailable. (Which you might have guessed.)

64 posted on 05/16/2007 7:57:35 AM PDT by cogitator
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 60 | View Replies ]

Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article


FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson