If there is a wild swing, a big factor is Fred Thompson entering the mix. Nevertheless, comparing Rasmussen’s poll numbers from when Thompson’s name was first included (3/26-29) with the latest poll numbers they are: Rudy went up from 26% to 30%, McCain went down from 16% to 14%, and Thompson stayed the same at 14%. So comparing apples with apples, Rudy is the only who has gone up. How do you explain that?
I wasn’t talking about the “preference” part of the polls, I’m talking about McCain’s favorable rating plummeting, and the public perception of him as “conservative” shooting up, both of these among “likely primary republican voters” who would be “expected” to already know whether they liked McCain or not, and would already have “firm” opinions on whether he was liberal or conservative.
There would be little reason for Fred Thompson to change people’s views of McCain as conservative, or to make McCain less liked.
If McCain can have 10 points shaved off his favorable in a week, you don’t think Rudy can have the same thing happen to him?
And if Rudy’s the pick simply because he’s in front and well-liked, what happens when he’s no longer “well-liked”?