Bumpity bump!
Posted on 05/01/2007 5:08:49 AM PDT by areafiftyone
Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani remains on top in the race for the GOP nomination and now enjoys support from 30% of Likely Voters. That’s more than twice the total of any other candidate. Former Tennessee Senator Fred Thompson and Arizona Senator John McCain are tied for second at 14%.
Thompson has been in the 12% to 14% range for each of the five surveys since his name was floated as a possible candidate.
McCain, once considered the dominant frontrunner, has struggled in recent months. His support among Likely GOP Primary voters has fallen eight percentage points since January. His numbers now are strongest among independents likely to vote in a Republican Primary. In Election 2000, McCain did best in open primaries that allowed independents to vote. Then Governor Bush did best in Primary states where only Republicans could vote.
Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney remains the only other candidate in double digits. Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich remains in fifth place with 8% support.
Giuliani is the most popular candidate in either party—62% now have a favorable opinion of him. McCain’s favorability ratings among all voters have also fallen to the lowest level yet measured--49%. Thompson and Romney are less well known, viewed favorably by 35% and 32% respectively. See updated favorability ratings and general election match-ups for all Republican and Democratic candidates.
Among all voters, 44% now see John McCain as politically conservative. That’s a significant increase from 26% in December. What’s truly unusual about perceptions of the Arizona Senator is how consistent they are across party lines. Forty-four percent (44%) of Republicans view him as politically conservative. That view is shared by 45% of Democrats and 43% of those not affiliated with either major party.
Giuliani is seen as politically moderate by 49% of all voters. Twenty-eight percent (28%) see him as politically conservative. By a 68% to 19% margin, Republicans see Giuliani as politically moderate. Democrats are more evenly divided. Thirty-nine percent (39%) of those in Nancy Pelosi’s party see the Republican frontrunner as politically conservative while 36% say he’s politically moderate. Among those not affiliated with either major party, 47% see Giuliani as a moderate while 24% say conservative.
Thompson is less well known. Among all voters, 32% see the actor and former Senator as politically conservative. Twenty-five percent (25%) say he’s politically moderate while 6% say liberal. A plurality, 37%, don’t know enough to have an opinion. Among Republicans, 37% see Thompson as a conservative while 27% say moderate.
While Giuliani retains a sizable lead, the latest polling in the Democratic race shows that New York Senator Hillary Clinton has lost her lead to Illinois Senator Barack Obama.
Democrats currently have public support on their side for the most significant issue of the day—Iraq. Most Americans favor either bringing all troops home from Iraq immediately or establishing a firm timetable for their withdrawal. Most also oppose a Presidential veto of the Iraq funding bill passed by Congress to establish a timetable.
Rasmussen Reports releases updated polling data on the Republican nominating contest every Tuesday. Results for the Democrats are updated on Mondays. The current survey is based upon national telephone interviews with 602 Likely Republican Primary Voters conducted April 23-26, 2007. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.
“And if Rudy’s the pick simply because he’s in front and well-liked, what happens when he’s no longer “well-liked”?”
The two questions you raise above are generalities that can apply to any candidate or front-runner. I don’t see the point of hypothesizing on what “ifs”. It doesn't lead anywhere or resolve anything.
His number is up from last week, but is still down from last month and his favorability rating was unchanged from last week. That too is down from his high of 71%.
His numbers have stagnated or declined since March. Just for a little context, in 1999 Bush went over 40% in February, over 50% in May and over 60% in June. In May of 1999 Elizabeth Dole was polling 24%. Giuliani's support is closer to Elizabeth Dole than George Bush at the same point in the cycle.
Even if he somehow manages to get the nomination I fail to see any reason for rejoicing by his supporters. If he squeaks through the primary process by winning a plurality of votes and his support continues to sag or stagnate do you honestly believe he would have the slightest chance of winning the general election?
Did you ever think that the reason why there are so very low poll numbers for everyone is that there are so many candidates. Once the candidates start dropping out the poll numbers will go up for everyone left in the primary race. There are at least 11 people in the race (including the non-candidates).
The race also included Buchanan as the Reform party candidate which likely siphoned off more Republican votes.
What were the poll numbers then? Were they similar? If not and we are using these kind of numbers than that means we are not going to win in 2008 PERIOD! No matter who is in the race. I don’t want to think that way. I think that once things start to thin out then polling will get better and the it will be more competitive.
touche
I don’t think we’ll ever see Rudy in that pose. At least I hope not.
Of course that would guarantee his defeat, but conservatives must stick to their principles.
Source?
McCain should just leave the race.
I don’t think he will this time around. This is his last chance to run for president. He’s going to be in there until the end. You can tell - He even revamped his campaign. He won’t win but he’s determined to be some sort of spoiler.
All the Giuliani in drag pics circulating around seems to have worked in his favor. He now has the drag queen vote, plus all the closet queens out there. There must be more of them than anyone imagined...
That's what I was referencing in my first post. Nationally, Bush was way ahead of the current pace in the 2000 race.
Bumpity bump!
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Political%20Tracking/Favorables/RepublicanPresidentialCandidates.htm
You are not seriously comparing Giuliani to al-Sadr are you?
areafiftyone
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