Posted on 04/17/2007 12:22:58 PM PDT by pissant
The conventional wisdom about presidential nomination campaigns is almost always wrong. And the pundits' dismissal of former New York City mayor Rudy Giuliani's bid for the Republican nomination will not improve their batting average. Even though Giuliani is way ahead of everybody in early primary polls, the experts are already writing Giuliani's obituary.
Some of this spin is wishful thinking by Democrats who don't want to face him in the general election. Other than Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-N.Y.), he is better known and more popular than anyone running for president, even Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.). And Giuliani has a better chance than any other GOP candidate to turn blue states red. Depending on the Democratic presidential nominee, he could put into play states like New York, New Jersey and California that are normally off-limits to Republicans.
The rap on Giuliani is that he is a great prospect for winning the general election but has almost no chance to win the GOP nod because of his personal history and his stands on issues such as gun control and gay marriage. But there are at least a couple of reasons why he could go all the way and come out of the Republican National Convention in Minnesota as king of the hill.
First, GOP primary voters, especially born-again Christians, are so horrified at the prospect of Clinton becoming president that they would nominate the devil if they thought it would keep her out of the White House. The stronger Clinton becomes in her bid for the Democratic nomination, the better Giuliani will look to the religious fundamentalists on the Republican side who descend on the Iowa caucuses by the busload.
In backing the most electable candidate, Republican voters would be following a long history of calculation and pragmatic voting in presidential primary campaigns. In 2004, Democrats were so eager to block the reelection of President Bush that they voted with their heads for Sen. John F. Kerry (Mass.), rather than with their hearts for former Vermont governor Howard Dean.
We may finally get the dream race that everybody wanted in 2000, when then-mayor Giuliani was ready to run against then-first lady Clinton for the U.S. Senate in New York, until fate and the mayor's former wife Donna Hanover intervened.
The other factor that could propel Giuliani to victory in the Republican race is that voters, even primary voters, care more about qualities like leadership and strength than they do about the positions the candidates take on issues. In this context, the reputation for strength that Giuliani built after the Sept. 11 attacks should serve him well in his campaign to win the approval of GOP voters.
To the extent that any single issue will be a factor in voting decisions, national security will trump anything else. No Republican candidate projects the strength that a president needs to stand up to the bad guys like the one who claims that he rid New York City of thugs and saved the city from ruin on the worst day of its proud history.
As Giuliani prepares to officially announce his candidacy, he appears to be softening his position on gays and guns to appeal to the born-again Christian wing of the GOP. He said recently that gun control was good for New York City but might not work nationally. Despite his friendships with gay couples, Giuliani also announced that he was opposed to same-sex marriage. But fudging the issues is a mistake for Giuliani, because renouncing long-held beliefs undermines the reputation he has for strength and integrity.
Democratic activists are afraid of Giuliani, and Republican diehards fear him, as well. But the Bush presidency is slowly sinking into the sunset and Giuliani is the GOP's best bet to hang on to the White House.
(Brad Bannon is president of Bannon Communications Research, a Democratic polling firm in Washington).
Rudy is the best a Socialist country could hope for.
John
You know you've lost the argument when you have to resort to this tired canard.
The author, as well as the Rudy butt-smoochers, really believe that conservatives are going to simply shrug and hold their noses while our rights and guaranteed freedoms get chipped away some more.
Taking out Rudy is the only thing the Clintons can do that is right.
Go Fred or Duncan!
How about letting the Mods make the call on whether or not these articles are in bad taste after an incident.
You are.
Run into this, interesting:
http://www.nagr.org/Giuliani.pdf
Harry Truman was right:
“When a democrat runs against a Democrat, the Democrat wins every time.”
GOP is flat-lining if Rootie is the only hope.
In the end, they will control the money and the power in the GOP and make it much harder for conservatives to bring a true Reagan conservative to run for office.
She only wants us to forego political discussions because she is too darn busy speculating about things on the VT threads. Unbelievable.
Rudy would make an awesome POTUS.
I find it absolutely disgusting that there are so many self-proclaimed ‘conservatives’ in this forum that would support a candidate solely on the basis that he ‘could win’. But is the case really that Rudy represents the values of these posters and they only think they are conservative? It would never dawn on me to vote against my values and principles in order for a political party to prevail in an election. In my way of thinking you lose more than you win, and that is not acceptable. Oh, well.
Politics is about winning elections. That’s the real world. Anything otherwise is living in a fantasy tower where everyone’s perfect.
You seem to be in the camp who believes as gospel truth the leftist propaganda, the objective of which is exactly to influence the gullible conservatives, split them, so Hillary can win. How naive and gullible do people have to be, not to see this?!
Read the article. It is by Brad Bannon, a Democratic pollster and supporter. And he just Looooooves Rudy.
He even writes many of the same things you and Rudysquad write. Amazing! So tell me, who were you calling a shill again?
APf
In my real world, we have principles and convictions that we do not compromise. We don’t change the way we live or what we believe for the sake of elections. Winning is the ultimate goal in sports as well, but you don’t compromise ethics in order to win. Are you saying that there is nothing you believe in that you would not compromise? Seriously.
Rudy is similar to my congressman, Mark Kirk (R-IL). Kirk is pro-choice, pro-gay marriage, pro-gun control, pro-illegal alien, and pro-pork barrel spending. This year, he voted against the Iraq surge and in support of a Pelosi-proposed tax rate increase. I’ve never voted for him because he’s as liberal as the four Democrats he defeated. In Feb. and Apr. of this year, I e-mailed him and asked why he’s a Republican. I haven’t received a response yet.
If Giuliani is GOP’s only hope, then we’re lost. Giuliani has the morals of an alley cat just like clintoon. Might as well change the Constitution and re-elect Bubba.
Yes.
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