Posted on 04/17/2007 12:22:58 PM PDT by pissant
The conventional wisdom about presidential nomination campaigns is almost always wrong. And the pundits' dismissal of former New York City mayor Rudy Giuliani's bid for the Republican nomination will not improve their batting average. Even though Giuliani is way ahead of everybody in early primary polls, the experts are already writing Giuliani's obituary.
Some of this spin is wishful thinking by Democrats who don't want to face him in the general election. Other than Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-N.Y.), he is better known and more popular than anyone running for president, even Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.). And Giuliani has a better chance than any other GOP candidate to turn blue states red. Depending on the Democratic presidential nominee, he could put into play states like New York, New Jersey and California that are normally off-limits to Republicans.
The rap on Giuliani is that he is a great prospect for winning the general election but has almost no chance to win the GOP nod because of his personal history and his stands on issues such as gun control and gay marriage. But there are at least a couple of reasons why he could go all the way and come out of the Republican National Convention in Minnesota as king of the hill.
First, GOP primary voters, especially born-again Christians, are so horrified at the prospect of Clinton becoming president that they would nominate the devil if they thought it would keep her out of the White House. The stronger Clinton becomes in her bid for the Democratic nomination, the better Giuliani will look to the religious fundamentalists on the Republican side who descend on the Iowa caucuses by the busload.
In backing the most electable candidate, Republican voters would be following a long history of calculation and pragmatic voting in presidential primary campaigns. In 2004, Democrats were so eager to block the reelection of President Bush that they voted with their heads for Sen. John F. Kerry (Mass.), rather than with their hearts for former Vermont governor Howard Dean.
We may finally get the dream race that everybody wanted in 2000, when then-mayor Giuliani was ready to run against then-first lady Clinton for the U.S. Senate in New York, until fate and the mayor's former wife Donna Hanover intervened.
The other factor that could propel Giuliani to victory in the Republican race is that voters, even primary voters, care more about qualities like leadership and strength than they do about the positions the candidates take on issues. In this context, the reputation for strength that Giuliani built after the Sept. 11 attacks should serve him well in his campaign to win the approval of GOP voters.
To the extent that any single issue will be a factor in voting decisions, national security will trump anything else. No Republican candidate projects the strength that a president needs to stand up to the bad guys like the one who claims that he rid New York City of thugs and saved the city from ruin on the worst day of its proud history.
As Giuliani prepares to officially announce his candidacy, he appears to be softening his position on gays and guns to appeal to the born-again Christian wing of the GOP. He said recently that gun control was good for New York City but might not work nationally. Despite his friendships with gay couples, Giuliani also announced that he was opposed to same-sex marriage. But fudging the issues is a mistake for Giuliani, because renouncing long-held beliefs undermines the reputation he has for strength and integrity.
Democratic activists are afraid of Giuliani, and Republican diehards fear him, as well. But the Bush presidency is slowly sinking into the sunset and Giuliani is the GOP's best bet to hang on to the White House.
(Brad Bannon is president of Bannon Communications Research, a Democratic polling firm in Washington).
If Rudy is the GOPs only hope, then we are in more serious trouble than I thought.
Fool, no need for further review.
LOL!
My great grandpa was a Republican from 1854. He is rolling in his grave right now at the way the Republicans have abandoned the great civil rights issues that the party was founded upon.
He vowed to be faithful to his wives, too. How’s that working out for him?
I do. He is not the candidate we need.
In other words, we may as well already start referring to her as “president-elect” Clinton.
Yeah...
RIIIIiiiiiiiiiiight.
Politics is about convincing more people to vote for you than for the other side, not threatening to destroy the party if you don’t get your way.
Rush said this:
“But we’re gearing up for this election, and if you don’t think that in the Drive-By Media and the Democrat Party, if you don’t think 2008 is all about the Clintons getting back in the White House, you’ve got another thing coming. I’m going to tell you as we sit here today, there is an 80% chance that Hillary Clinton will be the next president of the United States, if you look at the way things are falling out right now. They’re trying to take out Rudy Giuliani. Guess what? Rudy’s a “draft dodger” now. Did you see the story over the weekend? Well, Clinton was a draft dodger so they got Rudy. Rudy’s a draft dodger. Whatever was said about Clinton, they’re going after it. Rudy is a draft dodger. Rudy is a philanderer.
Whatever it is, they’re doing everything they can to take Rudy out. “
Rush Limbaugh: It’s All About the Clintons and ‘08 (80% chance HRC pres)
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1818569/posts
"We may finally get the dream race that everybody wanted in 2000, when then-mayor Giuliani was ready to run against then-first lady Clinton for the U.S. Senate in New York, until fate and the mayor's former wife Donna Hanover intervened."
The dream race that everybody wanted? Is Brad Bannon on drugs or something? That's not a dream; it's a nightmare.
Cordially,
Suppose Mr. Bannon has never heard of Fred or any other Republican conservative, for that matter.
Just a FredHead here. Giuliani would be a lesser of two evils vote and I think Conservatives will come alive when a real Conservative throws in his hat. And a very big hat that will be!
God Bless America today as we all grieve over the senseless deaths of 32 innocents. My prayers are with the families of Virginia Tech for strength to stand proud for their loved ones.
That's buying the DUline that Bush is an extreme right winger.
If the electorate is dissatisfied with an incumbent moderate Republican Adminstration, going "more moderate" is only confessing "we screwed up big time. Give us another chance. Pretty please with a cherry on top".
Even if independants are between "conservative" and "progressive" (which is not necessarily the case) why should they not choose the moderate Democrat, who doesn't have the odium associated with the incumbent?
BULL!
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