PA, he can win. Bush was close to Kerry in ‘04 in PA. It was closer there than the margin in OH. Other states like CA, I am not so sure. It would take a hell of a campaign to win the far left states.
Rudy will get NO Reagan Democrat votes as pro-life is the ONLY thing that entices most to vote Republican, and certainly nothing from the plain people for the same reason. He will split the Republican vote between pro-life and pro-choice with many pro-life Republicans having no reason to vote for either party.
IF Rudy is the Republican nominee, he will receive far fewer votes when things shake out than Bush did in either the '00 or '04 elections, and with all the help Bush had in '04 from both pro-choice and pro-life Republicans, plus pro-life Democrats, it was not enough for him to carry the state especially with a Democrat governor at the levers of power. Fast Eddie will still be there in '08 to manufacture the needed votes from Philly to carry the Democrat candidate (even Hillary, not to mention that she might take some of the pro-choice suburban Republican women's vote from Rudy.)