And I happen to believe only Rudy can win.
I think Rudy is one of the least likely to win. Here's why -
The Republican base will be split on Rudy,once the majority realize his positions on gun control, abortion, gay marriage and his overall socially liberal policies.
Then there's the media, who will turn on Rudy in the general election, and give him both barrels of their attack mode, further alienating the base, and possibly independents.
Now take into account this historical fact. Once the Republican candidate is chosen,he tends to shift his positions to the left some, attempting to pick up votes from the independents and undecided.
Meanwhile,the Dem candidate is glorified by the media as he or she shifts to the right in order to secure those same undecided/independents.
The way I see it, Rudy is dead in the water.
The base is disillusioned,the media is in full attack mode and the ill informed moderate swing voter sees little difference between the two choices.
And then with a week or two left before the November election,the media releases it's "October Surprise".
Good bye Rudy, hello Hillary.
Your only point that appears not applicable to other Rs as well is the R-base split. In the end, will the base come to its senses? Or will it place its de facto vote for the Stalinist?
I say the former. I have faith in the base’s undying self-interest if not its fundamental sanity.
Perhaps just as important, your analysis neglects to factor in the loss of message control by the campaigns and old media, witness the web-based viral ads.
Whereas hillary clinton’s announcement video is said to have gotten 12,000 views, the Obama-Apple ad mashup tonight exceeds 3,100,000.
(And which R will do better than Rudy anyway?)