Partition will almost certainly lead the Kurds to a lot of conflict, and possible annexation by Turkey and/or Iran.
Be easier if the Shia and Sunnis didn’t live so intermingled in some areas.
I have strong doubts about its success, although once a upon a time I favored it.
What is the alternative? The ideal outcome is always that everyone will just get along and sing kumbaya or whatever. But here in reality the people of Iraq are already effectively partitioned and always have been. Even in times when they were within the same international borders it was always because one or another group (or more often an outside power) was forcing them together.
Is there any doubt that if, in 2003 or 2004, the U.S. had said ‘everything is on the table, even partition if that’s what the Iraqis want’ that they would’ve chosen anything else? Is there any doubt that’s what most of them would choose now? Until you can honestly say ‘No, they would rather stay together’ a unitary peaceful Iraq will never exist.
And does anyone seriously think we’ll ever hear them say that?
No, if partition happens I would bet money that the US would stations some forces in the Kurdish region to ensure that they do not get annexed. BTW taking Kurdistan would be no easy task, the Peshmerga are vicious.