Posted on 04/02/2007 7:17:51 AM PDT by chad_in_georgia
In just three weeks, Fred Thompson has improbably transformed the contest for the Republican presidential nomination. It is not merely that he has come from nowhere to double digits in national polls. He is the talk of GOP political circles, because he is filling the conservative void in the Republican field. Republican activists have complained for months that none of the big-three contenders -- Rudy Giuliani, John McCain and Mitt Romney -- fits the model of a conservative leader for a conservative party. The party faithful have been waiting for another Ronald Reagan. But in the past year, nobody mentioned Thompson as the messiah until he appeared March 11 on ''Fox News Sunday with Chris Wallace.''
His statement to Wallace that he was ''giving some thought'' to a presidential run generated a reaction that surprised Thompson. In the first Gallup Poll that listed Thompson (March 23-25), he scored 12 percent -- amazing for someone out of public life for more than four years. More important than the polling data is his backing within the political community. Buyer's remorse is expressed by several House members who had endorsed former Massachusetts Gov. Romney.
Thompson's popularity reflects weakness among announced Republican candidates, as reflected in the Gallup survey. Sen. McCain, no longer an insurgent but still not accepted by conservatives, is stuck in the 20-25 percent range. Former New York City Mayor Giuliani has dropped precipitously from 44 percent to 31 percent, amid attacks on his ideology and personal life. Most startling, despite a well-financed, well-organized campaign, Romney has fallen to 3 percent.
Sophisticated social conservative activists tell me they cannot vote for Giuliani under any conditions and have no rapport with McCain or Romney. They are coming to see Thompson as the only conservative who can be nominated. Their appreciation of him stems not from his eight years as a U.S. senator from Tennessee but his actor's role as district attorney of Manhattan on ''Law and Order.''
Thompson's political origin as a protege of Sen. Howard Baker, leader of the Tennessee GOP's more liberal wing, prompted hard-line Senate conservatives to consider him a little too liberal. Actually, his lifetime Senate voting record as measured by the American Conservative Union was 86 percent. It would have been close to 100 percent except for his repeated votes supporting McCain's campaign finance reform. None of the big-three Republicans has been so consistently conservative as Thompson on tax policy, national security and abortion.
The principal complaint about Thompson concerns his work ethic. The rap is that he does not burn the midnight oil -- the identical criticism of Reagan, before and during his presidency. That carping may betray resentment that Thompson has emerged as a full-blown candidate without backbreaking campaign travel and tedious fund-raising. Thompson's critics assert that, bored with his lucrative career as an actor, he has enjoyed his 15 minutes of fame created by a chance TV interview and will not really run. But he privately assures friends that this is for real. His performance on ''Fox News Sunday'' was no accident. He went on the program for the purpose of unveiling his possible candidacy.
Thompson did not leave public policy when he left the Senate. He has served on the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission. He hardly knew Scooter Libby but felt he was getting a raw deal, appeared in his courtroom and helped raise money for his defense fund.
Friends bet Thompson will run. He clearly wants to try, and his wife, Jeri, is all for it. Seeking the best timing, he wants to avoid the pitfalls encountered by Democrat Barack Obama, who may have damaged himself by starting his campaign too quickly.
I met Thompson in 1974 as Howard Baker's 31-year-old minority counsel on the Watergate investigation. I considered him co, careful and conservative. He still is, and that is how he would run for president, which appears in the offing.
Zero point one. He’s probably a Democrat plant, that would be the charge.
Why does he stand out to some? What makes him different then dozens of other Republicans? It is what Novak states, his TV and movie "fame". I think it is a mirage….I am writing only about his chances to be elected, IMO. I don't see his chances of getting the nomination as remote as you do. Last man standing- with core supporters- while the heavyweights exhaust themselves on each other is a real possibility…. I just don't see him getting 270 electoral votes where is counts…. With super super Tuesday, with huge States holding early primaries, everything we think we know about a candidate winning the nomination is moot.
McCain’s the legacy nominee. There’s a clear cut Republican leader at this point in the primary process. A rather talented politician, though you may have heard he has way too many wives and one is a nurse who tortures puppys. I’m comfortable letting the primary process sort this out, if Gingrich or Thompson (not Tommy, though he’s an interesting guy too) or McCain or Romney can overcome Guiliani’s lead, they can beat Hillary. The test of political skill on a national level is winning on a national level.
You’re right about the Tuesdays. First time in years my vote (Illinois) might matter. Forces the candidates to run a national media campaign from the start. There’ll be no time to “build” momentum. Sorry to say, I think Thompson’s movie image will win voters, at least in the general.
He’d be the first bald President since Ike, first actor since Reagan. First lawyer since Clinton.
He quit for something more pleasant, more easy and more lucrative.
I don't thinking dealing with a close family member's death is all that pleasant and lucrative.
Great point, xsmommy. So Rudy gets defended for dropping out of the NY Senate race for his cancer,
And opened the door to a possible Hitlery presidency!! This fact seems to be lost on many. If he would have stuck it out, won the seat for the GOP and then resigned it could well have meant an end to her political career. It could be argued that the spector of 4-8 more years of Clinton is directly his fault.
On the subject of actors and lawyers, has anyone questioned the potential loss of millions of dollars were Thompson to run. Would anyone sue? Is he contractually obligated?
From the minute he announces, no TV episode or movie where he appears can broadcast.
Law and Order, network repeats, or in syndication- where he acts- go off the air. Many lose if that is forced to occur.
Know anyone ever treated for prostate cancer? They have difficulty getting to the toilet in time much less to a campaign rally.
The quality of thought that goes for political intelligence here some time is amazing.
Do you have ANY IDEA about Thompson's sexual issues? The media does, and so does most of Washington. SOLID? Based on WHAT?
BACK this up with your SOLID evidence, PD.
Call it a cop out if you like, but when Thompson tells you he aint running, I'll be lookin for ya.
Hasn't the law changed since Reagan? Today you'd see Ron and the chimp daily.
Again, I've been a Rudy man for a while, but even he's got problems. Smart of Rudy to come out clean on Kerik, btw. Romney did very well in 1Q fundraising, btw. Congrats.
Again, I'll suspend judgement on Freddie, but he strikes me as Flava of the Month....
Be Seeing You,
Chris
That does suck. Dropping out for cancer. Likely he's a dem plant.
You're an Edwards supporter, I presume.
He could have gotten a big bus, they have washrooms.
Welcome to the twilight zone. Can't wait to get back.
Happy Passover!
I don't know. Have equal time requirements been eliminated?
It's Ok if Reagan would be shown with a chimp if Jimmy could be shown with killer bugs bunny.
Chag Sameach
Oh- I’d call it more than a cop out.
There are various levels of treatment for prostate cancer, depending on how far along it is before detection. (It grows very slowly). If they operate, there is good chance that damage to the prostate will cause urinary incontinence. However, the seed implantation method (used when they catch it early enough)causes no such problems. My urologist tells me that operations are relatively rare these days because it is caught in the early stages.
My guess is that Pukin Dog is jealous of the hot chicks Fred dated and his younger, pretty hot wife. No wonder Fred looks a little tired. A man his age ...
Color me green with envy.
Fred Thompson must be doing even better than I thought. Why else for all the baseless attacks? Although I do enjoy seeing all the Rudybots in such a panic. For them that reality slap must be some hard medicine.
I recall that he hated the senate as not being political, rather a good-old-boy-society that was merely interested in re-elections and money. His disdain was obvious. Senators are political whores and nothing more.
Romney fundraising is no surprise. The organization is better organized then all the others, and focused, with more young volunteers (even some paid) than anyone else.
All you have to ask is, which campaigns are worried, and which ones are not? Rudy didnt make much more than McCain.
LOL. Oh yeah, thats me!
Obviously, you don't know me that well, huh? LOL.
“Obviously, you don’t know me that well, huh? LOL.”
Obviously well enough to know you have a sense of humor. I can’t say the same for some of the cranky ones whenever somebody mentions Rudy in a less than completely derogatory light.
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