Posted on 04/02/2007 7:17:51 AM PDT by chad_in_georgia
In just three weeks, Fred Thompson has improbably transformed the contest for the Republican presidential nomination. It is not merely that he has come from nowhere to double digits in national polls. He is the talk of GOP political circles, because he is filling the conservative void in the Republican field. Republican activists have complained for months that none of the big-three contenders -- Rudy Giuliani, John McCain and Mitt Romney -- fits the model of a conservative leader for a conservative party. The party faithful have been waiting for another Ronald Reagan. But in the past year, nobody mentioned Thompson as the messiah until he appeared March 11 on ''Fox News Sunday with Chris Wallace.''
His statement to Wallace that he was ''giving some thought'' to a presidential run generated a reaction that surprised Thompson. In the first Gallup Poll that listed Thompson (March 23-25), he scored 12 percent -- amazing for someone out of public life for more than four years. More important than the polling data is his backing within the political community. Buyer's remorse is expressed by several House members who had endorsed former Massachusetts Gov. Romney.
Thompson's popularity reflects weakness among announced Republican candidates, as reflected in the Gallup survey. Sen. McCain, no longer an insurgent but still not accepted by conservatives, is stuck in the 20-25 percent range. Former New York City Mayor Giuliani has dropped precipitously from 44 percent to 31 percent, amid attacks on his ideology and personal life. Most startling, despite a well-financed, well-organized campaign, Romney has fallen to 3 percent.
Sophisticated social conservative activists tell me they cannot vote for Giuliani under any conditions and have no rapport with McCain or Romney. They are coming to see Thompson as the only conservative who can be nominated. Their appreciation of him stems not from his eight years as a U.S. senator from Tennessee but his actor's role as district attorney of Manhattan on ''Law and Order.''
Thompson's political origin as a protege of Sen. Howard Baker, leader of the Tennessee GOP's more liberal wing, prompted hard-line Senate conservatives to consider him a little too liberal. Actually, his lifetime Senate voting record as measured by the American Conservative Union was 86 percent. It would have been close to 100 percent except for his repeated votes supporting McCain's campaign finance reform. None of the big-three Republicans has been so consistently conservative as Thompson on tax policy, national security and abortion.
The principal complaint about Thompson concerns his work ethic. The rap is that he does not burn the midnight oil -- the identical criticism of Reagan, before and during his presidency. That carping may betray resentment that Thompson has emerged as a full-blown candidate without backbreaking campaign travel and tedious fund-raising. Thompson's critics assert that, bored with his lucrative career as an actor, he has enjoyed his 15 minutes of fame created by a chance TV interview and will not really run. But he privately assures friends that this is for real. His performance on ''Fox News Sunday'' was no accident. He went on the program for the purpose of unveiling his possible candidacy.
Thompson did not leave public policy when he left the Senate. He has served on the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission. He hardly knew Scooter Libby but felt he was getting a raw deal, appeared in his courtroom and helped raise money for his defense fund.
Friends bet Thompson will run. He clearly wants to try, and his wife, Jeri, is all for it. Seeking the best timing, he wants to avoid the pitfalls encountered by Democrat Barack Obama, who may have damaged himself by starting his campaign too quickly.
I met Thompson in 1974 as Howard Baker's 31-year-old minority counsel on the Watergate investigation. I considered him co, careful and conservative. He still is, and that is how he would run for president, which appears in the offing.
Good to see. While I am uncertain who will get my vote, I think he makes a positive addition to the race and appears to be to the right of the other contenders.
Any time now, Mr. Senator...
Very good. The more choices the better. Let the battle begin and as long as it doesn't get to dirty, whoever emerges will be even stronger in the general election.
FredHead ping!
You think?
Your proof is..?
What, you have no proof?
I wish I had as much brilliant mind-reading ability as you do. I could be a millionaire!
Come on in Fred. Novak is pretty amusing though pretending that he knows some "sophisticated" social conservative activists in order to dump on Giuliani.
Opinions and rank speculation are worth somewhat less than the bandwidth they take up.
What the pols call a "trial ballon."
Now Tommy Thompson has thrown his hat in the ring, we'll have to be more clear on the Fred/Tommy thing when using just "Thompson".
fear the fred!
...balloon."
You make a strong case.
Ever wonder why he isn't?
Chill out people, it could be May before he declares. In the meantime, things are looking great :)
RUN FRED RUN!!!!!!!!
I am all for a Fred Thompson run for the Oval Office!!!
:) Indeed.
I think there will be more than a few surprised people when Fred DOES announce.
Give it up Rooty, you don't have a prayer of getting the nomination or winning the general if you did.
Thompson can win it all and bring Hunter along as his running mate.
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