Posted on 03/29/2007 1:04:06 PM PDT by pabianice
Having lived in Washington for almost 20 years before becoming a transplanted Texan, being back in D.C. last week felt downright weird. Some things obviously hadn't changed.
The Redskins were about to trade another less-than-successful safety for whom they paid too much to begin with. Meanwhile, the Washington Post reported that a well-known lobbying firm had just earned its owner more than $11 million, the legislative process sometimes resembling thoroughbred racing or high-stakes poker.
What had changed dramatically, however, was the issue prompting my trip: the U.S. Army and its readiness for battle.
The short version of my findings: The Army is no longer at the tipping point but at the breaking point.
Some argue that it already is broken, but the reality resembles certain West Texas towns like Noodle and Munday. Strictly speaking, they are not located at the end of the world, but you can see that point clearly, and the local bus will take you out there for a quarter.
It is much the same in today's breaking-point Army, where institutional meltdown is in sight. The Army (created in 1775, an act of faith that necessarily preceded independence) is too small for its missions abroad and at home. Recent stories like the deplorable conditions at Walter Reed have only increased the growing sense of urgency.
Just last week, for example, the New York Times nonchalantly reported the shocking fact that almost 3,200 soldiers deserted last year. The response by an Army spokesman: Because desertions remain "below postwar levels and retention remains high, the force is healthy."
Wanna bet? Those glib words are contradicted by a high-ranking insider who, because he is still in a position to know, must remain nameless.
He characterizes the Army as "an unready force" which — five years after 9-11 — has been stretched beyond the breaking point.
The math runs like this: The Army must provide 33 brigades — each consisting of about 3,500 soldiers — to meet requirements from Iraq and Afghanistan to Korea and Germany. With the surge in Iraq requiring an additional 20,000 troops, the cupboard is rapidly running bare.
With half its 43 active-duty brigades already deployed overseas, the Army can only meet those commitments by dipping into the Reserves — and each of those brigades already has been mobilized and sent overseas at least once. The effect, according to the military insider: "We face two risks in Iraq: Al-Qaida and breaking the volunteer Army."
The result of this force-to-mission mismatch is that we now have a "just-in-time Army," double-timing hard to stay a step ahead of its deployments.
Ever mindful that slick-sounding bafflegab is the mother's milk of congressional hearings, Pentagon personnel weenies came up with the "dwell-time-to-deployment ratio" — to put the best possible face on an absurdity.
The current ratio is 1-to-1, meaning that you're either on a one-year deployment — or at home for a year getting ready for the next one. "But the real bad news is that 'dwell time' is going down to .7," my source said, so our soldiers may soon meet themselves coming home while heading back out the door.
Sheer statistical nonsense, of course, but its effects are quite real. With soldiers facing back-to-back deployments, it is small wonder that divorce rates in the volunteer Army are climbing or that some must make hard choices between family and continued service.
Tough, realistic Army training — a defining feature and secret weapon for two decades — is also coming under enormous pressure as time, money and people are siphoned off just to meet the frantic pace of current operational commitments.
Yet the Times also reported last week that even in the elite 82nd Airborne Division, "the so-called ready brigade is no longer so ready" to fight. Its soldiers are untrained, and its equipment is elsewhere. Nor is this an isolated problem, according to my source: "Forty percent of our equipment is either in Iraq or is being rebuilt."
After consuming the peace dividend, you start gobbling up the seed corn. So it is in today's just-in-time Army, just in time for our upcoming war with Iran.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Retired Col. Ken Allard is an executive-in-residence at UTSA and author of "Warheads: Cable News and the Fog of War." E-mail him at WARHEADS6@aol.com.
No, but as you can see, the armchair generals won't buy what a distinguished retired Army Colonel has to say on the subject.
Good points. I think W is about to be "misunderestimated" again.
Thank you. Has it crossed your mind that Colonel Allard may be telling the truth as he sees it? Why do you assume he is trying to "discredit the president?"
My son just recently transferred TWICE in 4 months to get to a unit that is scheduled for deployment.
Other thoughts: we are NOT now at our highest troop level/commitment in Iraq, I don't think. Seems like we had more there at January 2005 for the elections, but I don't have facts on this.
Perhaps a draft would be helpful. I am sure the dems would be glad to promote some legislation for that, add some pork barrel stuff....
Marine Mom
ping
I think in general he is right. Our services are too small. Our Navy is only 270 ships now. It used to be 600 ships. They are closing bases right and left. We are not even ready to close the Mexican border with what we have. God help us if North Korea or China attacks. We can only respond with nukes. This reminds me of the period after WWI when our forces went down to almost nothing. Shinseki was right about Iraq. Rumsfeld killed the Army as much as anyone.
It is, if all you want is an army of occupation. But in doing so your armored forces are not practicing their craft, your artillery units aren't honing their skills, your combat engineers aren't training in their specialty, and so forth and so on. You'll wind up with an army that might be able to occupy a city but won't know how to take it in the first place.
Gee, I wonder why more people don't want to volunteer for a force that's likely to be brutally downsized the next time a Democrat sits in the White House. Maybe there are those who love their country enough that they expect a level of appreciation from elected leaders for their service and sacrifice.
Training is an on-going process. It goes on at home and it goes on in theatre.
This time it's Clintons fault.
Sinetimes training can be counterproductive. The First Cav came over in 2004 with the attitude that they didn't need to learn from the troops they were replacing. Immediately some of them ran into a big ambush. OJT can be hard, especially if your leaders have their heads up the a....
Using this guys logic and reasoning the US Army of 1938 was in hell of a better shape than the broken US Army of 1945.
Furthermore what we have accomplished in the last 5 years of this WOT (which 100% includes Iraq) is historically amazing.
What kind of shape was the army of 1949 in compared to the army of 1945?
Using this guys logic why the Army of 1949 is well rested and well trained vrs the overstretched worn out soldiers of 1945. Heck we know they was taking anyone to be a soldier in 45, officer and enlisted training was rushed. Equipment shortages was constant. Plenty of R&R in 49 for the troops, I bet desertions was down as well.
Reality was different just like reality is different now.
I have been involved with the US Army either active or reserve since 1985 and has read enough history to say that there has never been a better trained, supplied, and motivated force on this planet than the US Armed Forces today. Just my opinion but I believe my own eyes before I believe what someone has written for the press.
This would allow time for volunteers to get the first crack a "choice" positions.
The supplemental draft should also include a provision to allow someone to remove themselves from the draft eligible criteria. This could be done by either repaying the Pell Grant, or converting the subsidized student loan to a regular student loan and paying the balance of the interest.
Yep. He was very stubborn about expanding the force, now we are paying for that.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.