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Baer's thinking on Iran is brutally obvious.
1, 2, 3 repeat until the quake takes down civil society in Iran. It’s an unstable cycle Robert… |
Posted on 03/29/2007 11:44:39 AM PDT by maquiladora
You wouldn't be wrong to wonder if Iran hasn't lost its mind seizing the fifteen British marines and sailors, and in so doing, handing Bush a causus belli even he couldn't have imagined.
But then again you'd be missing the grim fatalism that has settled over Iran of late, the resigned belief that a war with the U.S. is all but inevitable.
(...snip...)
I called up an Arab Gulf security official and asked him what he thought about it all. He said the view from his side of the Gulf is that if Iran does not soon release the Brits, a war between the U.S. and Iran is in the cards. "I for one am taking all the cash I can out of my ATM," he said before he hanging up.
(Excerpt) Read more at time.com ...
"As long as the Iranian people let their Armegghedon obsessed apocolyptic little Mahdi devotee call the shots I'd say war with the West is inevitable."
Bingo, we have a winner!!!
BTW, it's all Bush's fault (sarcasm)
Well this seems about the right time to break out the Jack Daniels!
We will soon realize that we can not afford to not go to war with Iran either. Sometimes you must choose between two bad choices. However, one is usually worse than the other. I'm thinking the longer we wait the worse it will be for us.
"Where are we going to get the money? America is basically broke. How bout the troops? They are in Iraq. Not trying to be a pessimist but these are legitimate questions."
We'll get the money the same way we got it during other wars, we just print it. The Fed has been doing this for years anyway.
Your points are valid though and I think that it will be primarily a standoff war that obliterates Iran's Rev.Gaurd and nuke facilities as a priority and secondly (if they persist) their military.
Honestly, if they do something stupid like go into Iraq all bets are off and we could see the first declared war and draft since way back. I think the West is capable of appeasement, but now the Iranians have back themselves and the Brits into a corner. I wouldn't say it's inevitable but it is getting more probable now.
We also don't have the manpower. A military draft seems requisite at this point, but of course the Democratic Congress will never allow that with 2008 around the corner. We could certainly do a lot of damage from the air, but without regime change, it's a mere Band-Aid. This is the crux of the problem. We can't risk another series of drawn out urban battles while we're still in Iraq. It would absolutely require a military draft.
At the end of the day, maybe Ahmadinejad is smarter than we give him credit. He must realize that we are essentially paralyzed from taking any action that would involve regime change.
You know, the more I think about it, in a sick way, maybe leaving Iraq is our only choice. The brick-crapping that will go on in the capitals of Europe as they contemplate Iranian hegemony on their doorstep may finally drive the point home that at the end of the day, Europe is a much closer target than the U.S., so start sending troops or prepare to fight them on the Continent. At this point - and I can't believe I'm saying this - but we're taking all the casualties, our own Congress makes a meaningful war with Iran a near-impossibility, and we're being told everything is our fault. Fine. Let's leave. Let Spain contemplate the rebirth of Andalusia at the end of a medium-range missile launched from Iranian controlled Baghdad. Let them contemplate daily Islamic rioting in Paris and London and Berlin. The Riviera can become the new Gaza Strip. Let them contemplate their complicity in the nuclear destruction of Jerusalem, (God forbid) the sacking of the Vatican, and the end of all that made Western Civilization great. This is what they want. Maybe when they're busy everyday cleaning up broken glass and dismembered bodies on the Champs-Elysees, they'll realize who the enemy is. Clearly, CLEARLY none of these countries (except for Britain and Australia) would ever come to our aid if the situation were reversed.
Sorry for the rant. We cannot let these people win. But it will require massive additional ground forces. Ahmadinejad is playing this perfectly, so far and calling him a nutjob just doesn't seem to be accurate at this point. The nutjobs are in Congress and hanging out with Hugo Chavez. Ahmadinejad could be on the verge of making his country a regional superpower. Congress is on the verge of castrating our own country. Who looks stupid, now?
War with Iran will be a conscious decision, not a reaction on our part. What I mean is -- the Iran National Army will NOT attack the United States.
However, the US, for whatever strategic reason, may decide to attack and invade Iran. (There are many good economic reasons for us to premptively attack Iran -- which I happen to support.)
The US is doing a good job provoking Iran. Imagine how we would react if fleets Iranian warships were staging war games 3 miles east of Washington. Heh.
My Dear, Dear soon-to-be-LATE Mahmoud,
NOTICE TO ALL FOREIGN CITIZENS and THEIR GOVERNMENTS!
(EFFECTIVE IMMEDIATELY)
1. As a sovereign nation, you have the same rights to govern your nation as we have. Whether freely elected or despotic tyranny, how you run your government and DOMESTIC affairs is between you and your leaders. If you people don't like how your government is behaving, we suggest you read some American history for the period between, say, 1774 and 1789. The world is awash in various sorts of small arms and other weapons. Getting enough to turn out your tyrant-du-jour ought not be a problem. Yes, many people will die (just as they did HERE in the late 1700s). It's the price of freedom. But -- and this is important to us -- our SOLDIERS will not be among them. But trust us when we tell you that the casualties of your revolution will pale compared to those you will suffer should we be forced to invoke Clause 3!
2. Please pay SPECIAL attention to the word "domestic" in number 1.
3. The MINUTE we become privy to firm, corroborated intelligence that you have plans to harm the United States or one of our recognized allies -- or, worst case -- DO, in fact carry out such an operation, the United States and any such allies who wish to assist will come to you and request that you cease and desist. If you refuse to do so, we will TURN MOST OF YOUR LAND INTO A SMOKING RUIN. We include in this list of threats AIDING, ABETTING, HARBORING, TRAINING OR SUPPLYING THOSE WHO, ALTHOUGH NOT CITIZENS OF YOUR NATION, MAKE PLANS TO HARM US OR AN ALLY.
We wish to live and trade in peace with all peoples -- BUT harm us or injure/kill American/allied citizens AND YOUR WORLD AS YOU HAVE KNOWN IT WILL SIMPLY GO AWAY -- FOREVER.
(If you have never seen it, slide on down to Blockbuster and rent "The Day the Earth Stood Still" with Arabic/Farsi subtitles, of course. REREAD 3 AND THINK "GORT.")
4. Once those smoking ruins have sufficiently cooled, we will put boots on the ground, clear any remaining resistance and seize your former property for the benefit of those who participated in the neutralization of the threat you posed. Casualties among our troops should be very limited because, as we think you have seen, the weapons possessed by the United States will leave very few to resist. REREAD 4 AND THINK 51st STATE!
QUESTIONS????
Thank you for your support in this vital matter.
The People of the United States of America
...handing Bush a causus belli even he couldn't have imagined.
Is Time Magazine unable to afford spellcheckers now? It's 'casus belli', not ' causas belli'.
Jeez...
|
Baer's thinking on Iran is brutally obvious.
1, 2, 3 repeat until the quake takes down civil society in Iran. It’s an unstable cycle Robert… |
We can not afford NOT to go to war with Iran. Period.
Iran is the swamp from which most of the terrorism in the ME springs.
We MUST drain the swamp!
Some of those pictures are a bit extreme to post.
We all know what happened to those poor souls in fallujah, but we are better than that.
Yep, because Iran's leaders, like Hitler and Tojo, have seriously underestimated us.
>> Unless we surrender first...
You mean unless Republicans surrender too.
surge not workin ping
After all, they're in charge of Foreign Policy now, are they not?
It isn't necessary to invade Iran...we, with the Brits, notify Iran through a back door, that if the prisoners are not returned in 5-days, Iran's one and only gasoline refinery will cease to exist. We then promise to blockade all shipping into and leaving Iran. In about 30-days, I suspect the Iran street will be boiling the tar and plucking the chickens and looking for their little 1/2-pint dictator. I mantain, managed properly, Iranians will forment so much confusion in the country their Democratic-Guard units will be very busy.
Sometimes, when you're up to your ass in alligators, it's hard to remember that your original objective was to drain the swamp.
I'm surprised, and somewhat disappointed to be honest, that nothing has resulted from the current US wargames going on in the region. No stray missile yet, from either side? I think that's the strongest likehood for this thing really taking off.
When the Israelis bombed Osirak, it set Iraq's nuclear program back long enough for ODS and OIF to permanantly end it.
If we take out Iran's nuclear facilities at Natanz, Arak Esfahan, and possibly Bushehr, Lavizan and classified locations, via airsrikes, not only will Iran not achieve nuclear ignition during the 2008-2016 period of questionable US leadership, but further, they will be dealing with Chernobyl style fallout plumes affecting large portions of their territory.
Airstrikes involving their Navy and Air Force will terminate Iran's ability to project force for decades or more, and a few selective strikes against Pasdaran and regular army assets will cripple their ability to confront internal dissent.
The US is easily in a position to accomplish any or all of these actions without breaking the budget or the US military, the "cost" is effectively nil.
On Cheney's last trip, nearly all the Gulf states visited signed onto the concept.
The US forces are largely in place.
We grabbed, among 300 others, an Iranian former assistant Defense Minister with in-depth, firsthand knowlege of Iran's nuclear program, and admitted publicly that we had him and that he was undergoing extensive de-briefing.
The French thought enough of the threat to put new propellers on the deGaulle, the Russians have pulled all their people out of Bushehr (and other areas, according to some reports) on a ridiculous pretext, and Bush has had little, if anything to say, what-so-ever, on the Iranians taking 15 Brits hostage.
Short of writing "HEADS UP" in crayon, with letters 30 feet tall on the base of the Statue of liberty, what more do you need to know?
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