"Escalating hostilities could also result in Iran blockading the Strait of Hormuz,"
That would last about 5 minutes.
Agreed. Iran can't block the Straits.....They would cause a short term scare that would hurt the markets and spike the insurance lenders.....but within a few days that would all begin to settle back down as the Straits would remain open.
The Spec guys might make it last a couple weeks...