Fred has always been conservative - his entry will demolish Romney. Rudy is the biggest celebrity in the race, but Fred's tought guy Hollywood image would make a dent in that advantage.
Fred's built in advantage is that among hard core conservatives, there is an appetite for a candidate with views they can support without holding their nose. Fred's that guy.
The problem is that it's not quite that simple. The primaries are getting earlier and earlier. The cost of running for President is getting fantastically expensive. And the support and backers you need have to be lined up well in advance. Simply put, if he wants to be President, he can't wait another month or two to mull his options.
Even if the far right wanted to derail Rudy, by then it may be impossible. Even if Thompson joined the race tomorrow, he'd need to come up with 100 million dollars, and numbers that could beat Giuliani. Easier said than done. Because he's not joining the race until his close friend John McCain drops out, and that may be several months.
As for the "fire in the belly" problem, I agree that RR was the greatest president of the 20th century, and he certainly did run for four years before 1980. However, his 1976 candidacy was not so much planned - he ran because Ford did not represent the conservative movement, just as Thompson (and the rest of us) correctly perceive that there isn't a real conservative among Rudy McRomney.
How does that address the "fire in the belly" issue with Fred Thompson? Sure, there's a vacuum, but opportunity alone isn't enough. Say what you aill about Hillary and Rudy, but they're not afraid to jump in the pit and get punched in the face, all day, every day, to fight for the brass ring.
Incidentally, our greatest president ever was George Washington. He was reluctant to be president as well. He never wanted a second term but was talked into it.
Not to belabor the obvious, but George Washington had an achievement or two under his belt that perhaps inclined people to hand him the job and beg him to stay for as long as he liked. While Fred's had a good acting career, it's not that good.
I am concerned about this "fire in the belly" issue. Frankly, all of the people jumping, heck, hurling themselves headlong like lemings into a campaign for an election so early (they've been campaigning forever already, it seems) is concerning. It reminds me of herd behavior. Obamma, Hitlery, then all the pilers-on. Either a herd or vultures.
This campaign for 08 has begun waaayyy too early and I really don't see how there is sufficient information available to determine that Fred is reluctant. Could be that what we are seeing is a careful consideration of the issue before plunging headlong. Or, he could be giggling to himself that some love him for pres. while he has no intention of running at all. There's just not enough information to know. And, the absence of information is not proof.
Michael Barone would disagree with you and did last week with Hugh Hewitt I believe. I'm searching for quote.