I would like to see the data for that please. My research showed turnout lower in conservative strongholds.
Why do you think moderates left? Because Republicans weren't conservative enough?
NRO and Real Clear Politics both had conclusive post-election studies demonstrating that the House and Senate were lost due to independents bailing on the GOP. That is not to suggest that there may have been some pockets of GOP disaffection, but overall we got our base to the polls.
We lost the independents primarily due to Iraq, corruption, and the 6-year itch. Gas prices were not a factor because they had stabilized or dropped. If they had not dropped, the losses would have been more devastating.