I'm betting we something much sooner. Look how fast LEDs have become mainstream in flashlight. They've moved into every segment with the exception of the brightest xenon bulbs.
LEDs will answer one of my big gripes with the CFL lights, a bulb that will work in a '3-way' fixture.
"Look how fast LEDs have become mainstream in flashlight"
That's because they can fit into that application well and for a minimum amount of money. Combine it with their long life and low power consumption and flashights become a 'killer app' for LED lights.
But take a look at the current crop of LED 'edison base' bulbs:
http://www.superbrightleds.com/edison.html
There's a couple problems:
1. Rather expensive
2. Relatively low light output for 'standard bulb' clones.
They can do things like floodlights well - it's almost like a larger version of a flashlight with the throw pattern. The problem comes when they try to do something like a standard lightbulb throw - nobody has really come close to replicating a standard bulb throw and power yet.
So right now few people are going to pay $30 to get a 30 watt equivalent LED bulb unless they're really, really into LED lighting and it meets their needs. Something is going have to change drastically in order to get them into widespread usage for any sooner than around 2010.