Paul will likely leave the GOP a la Buchanan and Keyes, within a few years. Hopefully taking Tancredo with him. I doubt Paul has a better shot winning the presidency as a 3rd party candidate, rather than a Republican...but, I would agree he has a 100% chance of losing under both scenarios.
Nope. Rep Paul has been there, done that, and got the tee shirt. FYI, he was the Libertarian Party Presidential nominee in 88. He's always served in Congress as a Republican.
i notice that after Buchanan was used to destroy the Reformed Party in the 2k elections, (good job that), he went right home to the Republican fold.