[joesbucks]

They won't bolt but will stay home on election day.

Other than the truly hard core zealots, most will do what they have to do. They may hold their noses, but they'll do it.

And the hard core zealots only represent a small fraction of the total who will vote in Nov 08.

The Rudy candidacy will likely redefine the influence and role of socons in conservative politics. Without bashing or responding to their press releases, he has marginalized most of the leadership to a fringe corner. It will be interesting to see if he can continue to do that.

[Wallace T.]

Giuliani has done well in pushing the Christian Right and the anti-abortion, anti-"gay rights" crowd into a corner. To some extent, they suffer from aging leadership (Dobson, Robertson, and Falwell are in their 70s, and Dobson and Falwell have had health issues) and a lack of recent political successes.

However, Giuliani will have to make a few breakthroughs to win the general election. He has to reach new audiences in his native Northeast and California who have voted for the Democratic nominee in the last four election cycles. His supporters overestimate the support that conservatives will give him out of fear of Hillary becoming President. In 1996, Bob Dole received almost the same number of votes (39 million) that the elder Bush had in 1992 despite four years of Clinton sleaze and socialistic initiatives.