I'll take that bet. Chinese tend to take the longer view on things. They have no reason to rush into dominance. With their long, strong economic boom continuing apace (the last week's market corection notwithstanding), the world can see (and has been noted here) that they'll surpass us in a few decades. They'd rather win without firing a shot (read up on Sun Tzu), and the primary need to re-unite with Taiwan is now more about civic pride than about economics. (Taiwan was the envy of the mainland... but now they're merely China's wealthy cousin, and the gap is closing quickly - 10% annual growth for China, 5% for Taiwan).
Further, with only 23 million people, Taiwan is barely as large as two major mainland cities. While acquiring two more cities like Shanghai would be nice, it is no longer as critical to China's economy. But again, the "pride thing" is still on a billion minds over there. It's not a rabid form of nationalism, but the default idea is that anything that increases China's global standing is something to celebrate in the heart of every citizen. (*sigh* Remember when we had a nation like that?)
Unless Taiwan makes a move towards more widely-recognized independence (or is suspected of preparing to do so), China will have no desire or interest in picking that fight.
In the end, the best possible result is mutually-agreed peaceful reunification. I'll give them a 50-50 chance of doing just that in a few decades, if the mainland adopts personal freedoms when the exhiliration from the new economic freedoms wears off... but the odds of THAT happening are moderately low, sadly. As always the elite are utterly unwilling to give up their station... but if they can find a way to appease a billion "underlings" without losing their place, they'll do it out of necessity when the economic boom levels off.
Haven't been keeping up with the news lately, have you...
China has hit out at Taiwan's President Chen Shui-bian after he made a strongly pro-independence speech on Sunday. Mr Chen said Taiwan should pursue independence, write a new constitution and change its official name from "Republic of China" to Taiwan.
China fury at Chen's Taiwan call
Taiwan needs to "go independent" and Taiwan was the best name for the country to use in seeking entry to the UN, President Chen Shui-bian said last night. "Taiwan will say yes to independence," he said. "Taiwan will be correctly named, Taiwan will have a new constitution, Taiwan will develop. There is no left-right political axis in Taiwan, just the question of independence or assimilation."
"The name `Taiwan' is the name of our mother," the president told a 25th anniversary dinner for Formosan Association for Public Affairs (FAPA) in Taipei. "[It's] the most beautiful, most powerful name; the best name for us to [use to] enter the United Nations."
Taiwan must `go independent,' Chen tells FAPA dinner
And just to up the ante:
Taiwan has test-fired missiles capable of hitting major economic centres of rival China, local news media reported Tuesday, amid a new tension across the Taiwan Strait. Military-funded Chungshan Institute of Science and Technology test-fired the local-made Hsiung Feng 2E, which has a range of up to 1,000 kilometres, last month, Taipei-based United Daily News reported.
Quoting an unnamed institute source, the paper said the missile is able to hit Hong Kong, Shenzhen and Shanghai - the economic centres of China in the south and central parts of the mainland.
Taiwan test-fires missile capable of attacking rival China
Internal Pentagon documents in the US has revealed that China has deployed more than 900 ballistic missiles against rival Taiwan that could obliterate the island's air force in the event of a war breaking out with mainland China.
Pentagon Report Says Over 900 Chinese Missiles Aimed At Taiwan
And sometimes they just get downright childish:
Mexico ordered a plane carrying Taiwanese President Chen Shui-bian to leave its air space this week at the request of China, which regards Taiwan as a breakaway province, a Mexican newspaper said on Saturday.
Mexico orders Taiwan president's plane out - report
Add in the Chinese/Russian cooperation in military exercises where the scenario is that China attacks Taiwan, we defend Taiwan and Russia steps in with nukes...I would actually cut his estimate in half...say, around 2012.