Trippi and Dean are a correct model .... problem Thompson has are:
1. apparently can’t declare till June at earliest due to TV deal ... not sure how his reported new ABC contract will further complicate the date
2. Trippi and Dean began almost 2 years before the first primary ... if June is his earliest marker for declaring ...he has less than 7 months before the first primary and the money committments for media, hotel, staff etc is months before - actually NOW.
The sheer logistics of assembling an Internet operation are mind boggling ... costly ... etc etc etc
it is not cynicism ... but pragmatics.
I am a strong Rudy supporter and Thompson in the race is great news for Rudy. he just crowds the people fighting for the same votes. RG has already targeted where his primary votes are going to come from
1. 20% of vote that is liberal he will own
2. good amount of moderates
3. smattering of conservatives
that will add up to 30-35% of initial Iowa, NH, SC, Fl vote.
Field will narrow when you get to following week in Calif, NY, NJ, Pa, etc etc where he is favored anyway and he will push 50% in these huge mega states.
game set match
can things go wrong - sure - but always check the London gambling sites for the “best polls”
many (most) on this site are focused on abortion, gun control ... fair enough ... but that is not where the vast majority of people’s visceral concerns are.
Since I’m not privy to what’s going on behind the scenes at Fred’s non-campaign offices..I am unable to counter some of your statements re: raising money, organization etc.
At the same time, I’m not sure I see how Rudy will be helped if/when Fred enters the race.
When you said pragmatic- I was thinking about that earlier this morning- that if Rudy were to start a 3rd party- he might call it The Pragmatic Party. Your tone is indeed based on the practical and pragmatic approach to politics in America. You quote percents and numbers as if they have replaced the candidate him/herself. It’s all in the numbers.
I will vote for the candidate of the GOP. I’ve seen quite a number of people I respect say if the nominee is Rudy- they’ll not vote for him. These are the people at the grassroots..the beloved/hated base. You’re looking ahead to the general before you get the nomination, which will be done at the base.
I think- you’re taking too much for granted.
Stay tuned...