[Corin Stormhands]

Agreed, it is still a long ways before the first primary. Keep in mind at this time in 1991 Slick Willie was at 2%.

I know you keep making that argument, but in so many ways this is NOT 1992.

This is the first Presidential year since 1952 that there is not either an incumbent or sitting VP in the race.

Add to that the factor of the Internet (and the joy of YouTube), the front loaded primaries, 24-hour news...we're in a post 9/11 environment.

I'm not saying things couldn't change. They certainly could overnight.

At the same time, I just don't think you can compare this to any other year.

[dirtboy]

I think 1992 is a very apt comparison. Bush the Elder lurched leftward and lost that year by splitting the party. Just like Rudy would if he won.

[Hydroshock]

The more I am looking at Newt I think he will come in late summer or early fall say better labor day and Halloween. Then it becomes a new ballgame.