Replies

A major error in CT's calculations is that he is assuming 100% of each group vote.

Even in the most contended races, the normal turn out is 50% of the eligible voters.

That means, if any of the three groups could get 100% of their group to vote, it would effectively increase their votes by nearly 100%. Thus Repubs could get nearly 66% if all of the Repubs voted.

Example:
Let's say we have 100 voters.
33 Repub
33 Dem
34 Middle

Time to vote, only half show up:
16 Repub
16 Dem
17 Middle - Half go to Dem and Half go to Repub

Making the vote:
25 Repub (One Middle guy really hates Hitlery)
24 Dem

But, let's say it went the other way:
24 Repub
25 Dem

Now, let's say the Repub gets a real conservative, that pulls out all the Repub vote, but the Dem is asleep believing the polls:
42 Repub
25 Dem

We win.

Now, let's run the same scenario with Rudy:

Half the would be Repub voters go third party because Rudy is not acceptable:

8 Repubs go Constitution Party
17 Repubs (8 Repubs + 9 Middle)
24 Dem (16 Dems + 8 Middle)

Dems win. and don't get 50% of the votes. It happened in 1992, and gave us BJC, and people who think like you tried again in 1996 by forcing us to take Bob Dole, who turns anti-life and lost the Christian vote.

Don't feed us another RINO.

8 Repubs go Constitution Party

They would go Independent before they'd go CP. If a viable 3rd party candidate rises from the ashes then your scenario might play out, but that would mean the 3rd party candidate would have to have impeccable conservative credentials to sway the normally utopean conservative GOP voter. Still ain't gonna happen. The most that is going to happen is someone like Keyes popping up to pick the Plum$ of conservatives that are living in an alternate universe.

It happened in 1992, and gave us BJC, and people who think like you tried again in 1996 by forcing us to take Bob Dole, who turns anti-life and lost the Christian vote.

Yeah, those all-or-nothing Christian voters sure did show the American citizens by preventing a liberal like Bob Dole from becoming President. Good Lord.

You are forgetting something in your calculations: 9/11.

I don't think you guys have a clue about the number of voters whose main issue is the war on terror. Or you do, and that scares you more than terrorism on our own soil.

I BEMOANED the Dole candidacy because he had no chance of beating Slick. Kemp disappointed me BIG TIME with his lackluster VP-candidate performance, too....

but times change - the 'Rats won by grabbing a bigger share of the middle in 2006 - unless we do the same we're gonna go down in 2008.

THAT is the lesson of the 2006 elections...