Posted on 02/26/2007 4:18:14 PM PST by DAVEY CROCKETT
No one to counter Chavez In a region where the leading ideology is Bolivarianism, there is not one leader positioned to offer a better idea for a brighter future.
Commentary by Sam Logan for ISN Security Watch (23/02/2007)
For over two decades, the prevailing ideology in Latin America was neo-liberalism, a Washington-born idea that claimed the power of open markets would lift the region’s poor from misery. It did not, and corruption ran rampant.
While democracy still remains strong, resentful voters ushered in a new generation of neo-populist leaders touting a new idea: a form of socialism, called Bolivarianism, that has slowly but surely become the loudest and most prevalent ideology.
Bolivarianism is anti-capitalist, supports nationalization, regional trade with like-minded countries and above all, suggests that a country should rely on itself or fellow socialist states, not imperialist powers, as a source of the economic growth that will lift all from poverty. It is a sort of refurbished socialism that is not a guiding light for the future.
Latin America cannot readily absorb the economic shock of open markets, nor can it get bogged down in the trappings of old socialist ideas. A blended ideology must be promoted, but the problem is that no one is strong enough to counter Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez, the leader of Bolivarianism.
Chavez calls it Socialism for the 21st Century. Cuba's Fidel Castro passed him the torch. Leaders around the region pay homage to their own past as socialist upstarts through hugging and laughing with Chavez on the international stage while taking care of often pro-capitalist, neo-liberal business at home.
Brazilian President Luis Inacio “Lula” da Silva is a perfect example. He has the leftist background and eye for fiscal conservatism to become a great ideological counterweight to Chavez. His politics represent an ideal blend for the region. But his politically weak position at home and strong voices from his own left deter any would be shouting match with Chavez.
Within a week after winning his second term in office, Lula visited Chavez for a photo opportunity on a bridge linking both countries. That was in November, and it looks like Lula’s administration will remain bogged down until March as he struggles to get past his party’s sordid past and form a working cabinet willing to share the same table.
Argentina of the past could have been a counter weight to the Bolivarian ideology. But since Nestor Kirchner has come to power, Argentina has become a Venezuelan puppet.
Chavez has literally bought the support of his southern neighbor with over US$3 billion in purchases of Argentine debt. The most recent purchase occurred on 16 February, when Venezuela dumped another US$750 million into Argentine government coffers.
Colombian President Alvaro Uribe has the politics to promote an ideological battle with Chavez. Colombia has been a model of economic growth through a mixture of neo-liberal policies and social programs. But Uribe has serious problems.
Political allies are falling like dominos due to links with former paramilitary leaders. And if Uribe took the time to speak out for neo-liberalism and against Chavez, he would be dismissed as another of Washington's puppets. Colombia is a top recipient of US aid.
The only other leader who could take up an ideological fight with Chavez is Mexican President Felipe Calderon. He has the right politics and his country has a history of not blindly supporting the US. Voting against the US invasion of Iraq at the UN is a clear indication. But Calderon won on the thinnest possible mandate. His opposition controls enough seats in the Mexican Congress to block any unwanted initiative, and his focus is on Mexican organized crime, not on verbal sword play with Chavez.
Finally, the US has launched a diplomatic offensive in the region. This is to be a year of engagement, but the US president is clearly obsessed with the war in Iraq, not with putting a muzzle on Venezuela’s leader for the sake of the region’s future. Washington is doubly discredited, first for promoting an ideology that clearly did not work, and second for doing nothing about it.
Latin America needs an independent leader willing to stand up to Chavez, but that leader does not exist on the region’s geopolitical map. Bolivarianism will continue to seep into the minds and hearts of millions across Latin America. Chavez and his pool of allies will control the headlines until the next round of presidential elections tell the world how the region has embraced this new ideology.
As Chavez puts it, Socialism for the 21st Century is just getting started. If that is true, then he will continue to trumpet his ideology until Latin Americans learn, the hard way, that Bolivarianism did not carry them much farther from poverty than neo-liberalism. Disillusionment with reality may then spread faster than hope for the future.
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Sam Logan is an investigative journalist who has reported on security, energy, politics, economics, organized crime, terrorism and black markets in Latin America since 1999. He is a senior writer for ISN Security Watch based in Brazil.
The views and opinions expressed herein are those of the author only, not the International Relations and Security Network (ISN).
Iran offers to share nuclear expertise with GCC states
http://archive.gulfnews.com/articles/07/04/13/10117924.html
04/13/2007 10:34 PM | By Barbara Bibbo’, Correspondent
Doha: Iran is ready to share its nuclear technology with Gulf countries and open its research facilities to create confidence among neighbours and demolish the charge that the country is on its way to building a nuclear bomb, Iranian officials here said.
While supporting Iran’s stance over the use of nuclear technology for peaceful purposes, Gulf countries have at times expressed concerns over a nuclear build-up in the region and the risks posed to the environment.
“Gulf countries know we are not building any nuclear weapons. They rather fear Bushehr plant [currently under construction] may cause an environmental disaster. But we invite them to visit us and to carry out investigations and inspections of our facilities,” Alireza Shaikhattar, deputy foreign minister for economic affairs of Iran, told Gulf News.
“Our nuclear plant at Bushehr would have the best available safety standards. We are in search of peaceful and safe nuclear energy, and we are ready to make the Gulf countries or any other country confident by allowing access to the nuclear facilities. Unlike North Korea, we have not come out of the Non Proliferation Treaty. The United States is making a false case against us.”
On Wednesday, Prof Mohammad Larijani, director of the Institute for Studies in Theoretical Physics and Mathematics in Iran, told panellists in a public debate on the Gulf-Iran relations that Gulf countries should not be suspicious about Iran’s nuclear programme and invited them to share its technology.
“Iran’s neighbours in the Gulf Cooperation Council [GCC] should actually be glad about Iran’s peaceful nuclear programme because they can share technology with it,” said Prof Larijani. He added that Iran and the Gulf countries should put aside their historical disputes and cooperate following the model of the European Union.
Speaking to Gulf News after the talks, he said the Gulf countries would soon be obliged to consider the production of nuclear energy. “Production of nuclear energy would become a need for the Gulf countries as well. Sooner or later all of them would need energy because their resources [oil and gas] are not unlimited. With this in mind, the safety regulations become a collective bargain.”
Hasan Rowhani, head of the Strategic Research Centre in Iran, addressing the Arab World Competitiveness Roundtable in Doha this week, called for the creation of the Arabian Gulf Security and Cooperation Organisation comprising GCC, Iran and Iraq.
The group would aim to establish a common security framework, combating terrorism, sectarianism, organised crime and drug trafficking.
Iran would continue on the path of uranium enrichment despite international sanctions, Iranian delegates here said. “Our energy demand grows by more than 10 per cent per year. It is a matter of national interest and economic development,” Alireza Shaikhattar told Gulf News.
Crisis: We can survive without outside help - minister
Asked how the sanctions would impact Iran’s nuclear technology development and economy, Alireza Shaikhattar, deputy foreign minister for economic affairs of Iran, said sanctions would only have the result of affecting oil prices, with severe consequences for the entire world.
“More sanctions would only hike oil prices with negative consequences for all. The United States is building a case against us, but it seems not to be aware of our capabilities and potential. We are an independent country in many regards, we produce everything internally and we can continue to develop our nuclear technology without any help,” he said.
“Sanctions would not affect us seriously. This is why they are trying to paralyse our banking and financial system. But Iran has strong historical ties with financial and monetary institutions all over the world. They must consider the volume and capacity of our economy. They cannot ignore Iran.”
- B.B.
Qaida chief’s nephew says he sent hijacker money
http://archive.gulfnews.com/world/U.S.A/10118007.html
04/13/2007 10:32 PM | Agencies
Miami: The nephew of confessed September 11 mastermind admitted to sending more than $100,000 to one of the hijackers, according to a classified Pentagon transcript.
Ammar Al Baluchi, however, told a military panel at Guantanamo Bay that he was unaware of the terror attacks on New York or that Marwan Al Shehi had Al Qaida links.
“When Marwan al Shehhi approached me, he never declared himself as ‘hijacker Marwan al Shehhi,’” the transcript released on Thursday quoted Al Baluchi as saying.
He said his uncle, Khalid Sheikh Mohammed, had introduced them to each other. The US military said Al Baluchi was a lieutenant for his uncle and handled money transfers and travel arrangements for Al Qaida.
Al Baluchi was captured in Pakistan in 2003 and was one of 14 “high-value” prisoners moved to the Guantanamo base in Cuba from secret CIA prisons.
Files found on payouts from US Army
http://archive.gulfnews.com/world/U.S.A/10118005.html
04/13/2007 10:32 PM | Agencies
New York: A civil liberties group has obtained files from the US Army concerning compensation claims to Iraqi and Afghan civilians killed and hurt by coalition forces.
The records found by the American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU), received in response to a Freedom of Information Act request, showed that of 496 claims, 164 resulted in cash payments to the families.
In the 164 claims resulting in payments, about half were for compensation and the remainder condolence payments.
The military only pays compensation in cases not involving combat activity. If it does not accept responsibility for the civilian’s death, the military can make a discretionary “condolence” payment, which is offered without admission of fault and is capped at $2,500.
Jameel Jaffer, an attorney for the ACLU, said it was the first time the US government had released records of this kind.
He said, “For the first time they give the public access to very detailed information about the human costs of war. They allow the public to understand the burden that has been borne by civilians in Iraq and Afghanistan.”
Some 479 of the claims relate to incidents in Iraq, dating from May 2003 to late 2006 with the majority in 2005, and 17 to Afghanistan, most dating from 2006.
Kasparov arrested at Moscow rally
http://archive.gulfnews.com/world/Russia/10118251.html
04/14/2007 03:43 PM | Agencies
Moscow: Chess star and Russian opposition leader Garry Kasparov has been arrested on Saturday at a banned protest against President Vladimir Putin’s rule.
Police arrested Kasparov during a security operation to prevent Putin’s opponents from gathering at Pushkin Square.
Putin’s detractors say he is creating an authoritarian regime that could only be removed by force.
Kasparov was seen inside a police van waving and smiling at gathered media after his arrest. Dozens of others were also arrested, including some journalists.
[Does this say they bought Russia?]
Putin’s trail-blazing Mideast journey
http://archive.gulfnews.com/articles/07/02/23/10106256.html
02/23/2007 07:44 PM | By Tanvir Ahmad Khan, Special to Gulf News
In Yeltsin’s Russia of mid-1990s, conversations about future relations with the Islamic world often tended to be pessimistic.
Our Russian interlocutors would flag many impediments: the first Gulf war had established an almost exclusive zone of Western influence in the Middle East, the “Afghanis”- a generic term for Russians who had served and fought in Afghanistan - were too traumatised and embittered to encourage initiatives towards Muslim countries, the Chechnya war had acquired a religious complexion and Russian interests in Central Asia were being threatened by emerging Islamic revivalist movements.
Above all Russia had lost more than $15 billion in irrecoverable debts, mostly on account of unpaid military sales.
On our part, we, the envoys of Muslim countries, felt that this despondency reflected a post-Soviet crisis of confidence which would be shed as Russia gathered political and economic strength.
Moscow fought battles of turf in Muslim Central Asia with considerable success throwing its weight behind ultra-nationalist leaders who were once valued members of the Soviet politburo or the party’s Central Committee.
Showcased
It was able to foster a relationship of trust with Iran, now being showcased by the nuclear reactor being built despite Western pressure.
From amongst the Arab states, the path-breaking visit to Moscow in September 2003 by Abdullah Bin Abdul Aziz, who was the crown prince then and is now the King of Saudi Arabia, ranked with his other visits, especially to India and China, in heralding a new era of diversified international relations of the states of the Gulf Cooperation Council.
President Vladimir Putin’s landmark visits to Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Jordan demonstrate that his agenda went beyond consultations amongst energy giants and proclaimed Russia’s return to the region as an independent stakeholder.
There were echoes of the traditional Russian support for the Palestinians and an endorsement of the reconciliation between Fatah and Hamas that contrasted with lukewarm reactions from the West.
This has become particularly noticeable as US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice failed to generate a peace momentum in the joint consultations with Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas and Israel’s Prime Minister, Ehud Olmert.
Revival of independent Russian diplomacy in the region has doubtless been facilitated by Washington’s time of troubles in Iraq and Afghanistan. But its dynamics are wider than mere opportunism.
After years of procrastination and diffidence, Russia once again feels strong enough to challenge American unilateralism. Putin’s hard-hitting address at the Munich Security Conference just before he headed for Riyadh had focused on the destabilising impact of Nato’s push for more and more military bases.
His description of American policies as “ruinous” and as based on “almost uncontained, hyper use of force in international relations” seems to have had considerable resonance in the region.
More recently, there has been an added emphasis on Nato’s expeditionary role far beyond the original treaty area. Nato is projected provocatively as a “shield” for disseminating Western political and cultural values. The sub-text of Putin’s speeches was that this approach would be countered.
What Putin offered to the three leading Arab nations was a deliberate and well-considered intervention in the unilateralist Western programme for the region.
Saudi Arabia and Russia are today the largest producers of oil in the world. Both of them are crucial to global energy security.
While Putin made no critical observation about the energy policies of the GCC states, he has already demonstrated Russian readiness to use energy exports as an instrument of foreign policy. In the same vein, he now offered nuclear power reactors to Riyadh.
Given the current debate in the GCC states about nuclear power technology, he staked Russian claim to be a reliable supplier and thus questioned pre-emptive Western monopoly on energy development in the area. Not to be missed was his eagerness to attract Saudi investment in Russia as an earnest of long term relationship.
Moscow has been talking to Iran, Algeria and others about a global gas syndicate, an idea interpreted in the West as an attempt to establish a gas cartel.
In Doha, Putin kept his terminology on this issue fluid and tentative while clearly indicating that it could be discussed further. This is tantamount to saying that energy politics cannot be played only by Western rules.
Pressure
In 2006, both India and Pakistan faced considerable American pressure on the proposed Iran-Pakistan-India pipeline.
It is noteworthy that immediately after Putin’s Middle East visits, foreign ministers of Russia, India and China met in New Delhi with Russia and China describing a multipolar world as the aim of their diplomacy.
Regional instability caused by the disaster in Iraq would probably trigger off one of the bigger arms races in recent history.
India, which is at a safe distance from the epicentre of the Middle East crisis finds itself being courted by several nations for the sale of highly sophisticated weapon systems. There is a similar convergence of potential suppliers now on Abu Dhabi in anticipation of a significant increase in demand.
Putin seemed to be willing to sell 150 T-90 tanks, which have a place of honour in the Russian inventory, to Saudi Arabia.
If the neoconservative Greater Middle East project had aimed at turning this vast and vital area into an enclosed space, Putin has launched an important initiative to stress its open, international sovereign status.
The political purpose is clearly a diffusion of power and influence, a repudiation of unipolarity.
Tanvir Ahmad Khan is a former foreign secretary of Pakistan who has also served as ambassador to the Russian Federation.
Putin calls for curbs on US role
http://archive.gulfnews.com/articles/07/03/30/10114727.html
03/30/2007 09:01 PM | AP
Moscow: Russia’s President Vladimir Putin has sent a letter to a summit of Arab leaders, the Kremlin said yesterday, calling for a time limit for US military presence in Iraq and issuing what sounded like a veiled criticism of US foreign policy.
Putin said in the letter that Russia highly values “the Arab world’s contribution to building a just multipolar world order and political and diplomatic settlement of crises.” Russia has repeatedly pushed for a multipolar world — a term underlining its opposition to the unipolar world of US domination.
In what sounded like a veiled criticism of the US, Putin complained in the letter against a “policy of unilateral use of force and a desire to monopolise conflict settlement”.
He also criticised those seeking to “provoke a confrontation between civilisations and faiths”. Putin also openly assailed what he described as US over-reliance on force.
Putin tightens grip on press and Web
http://archive.gulfnews.com/articles/07/03/16/10111421.html
03/16/2007 07:45 PM | Reuters
Moscow: President Vladimir Putin has decreed the creation of a new super-agency to regulate media and the internet, sparking fears among Russian journalists of an attempt to extend tight publishing controls to the relatively free web.
Putin signed a decree this week merging two existing agencies into one entity that will license broadcasters, newspapers and websites and oversee their editorial content.
The move, which comes before national elections next year, unites the organisation supervising media and culture, Rosokhrankultura, with the federal body controlling telecommunications and information technology, Rossvyaznadzor.
Officials said this would improve efficiency by putting a single entity in charge of media content and technology but some of Russia’s top journalists expressed concern.
Under Putin’s rule, independent publishers have been mostly taken over by Kremlin-friendly businessmen. Domestic media are under heavy pressure not to criticise the government, making journalists suspicious of any new official initiative.
Raf Shakirov, who was dismissed as editor of the Izvestiya daily after critical coverage of the 2004 Beslan school siege, said Putin’s decree could extend Soviet-style controls to Russia’s online media, which have been relatively free to date. “This is an attempt to put everything under control, not only electronic media, but also personal data about people such as bloggers,” he said.
Tired of stifling official control over mainstream television and newspapers, Russians have increasingly turned to the internet to find independent sources of information.
Russians are the second largest group represented on the big US-based blog www.livejournal.com. Their blogs often feature political debates and advertise protests by opposition leaders. But authorities have already fired a warning shot across the bows of one leading news website, www.gazeta.ru, which got an official warning last year for “extremism” after writing about cartoons satirising the Prophet Mohammad (PBUH).
Roman Bodanin, gazeta.ru’s political editor, said the new super-regulator could make it easier for the government to track and pressurise independent media because the same agency would control the granting of licences and the supervision of content.
Kremlin foe Berezovsky calls for force to oust Putin government
http://archive.gulfnews.com/world/Russia/10118068.html
04/13/2007 08:44 PM | AP
Moscow: Russian tycoon Boris Berezovsky called for the use of force to oust President Vladimir Putin’s government and claimed he has support from members of its political elite, Britain’s The Guardian newspaper reported Friday.
Russia reacted swiftly to the prominent Kremlin foe’s remarks. Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said Berezovsky was abusing his asylum status in Britain and renewed calls for his extradition, while the chief prosecutor ordered a new criminal case opened against him, Russian news agencies reported.
In remarks that appeared aimed to rattle the Kremlin and foment political unrest ahead of crucial elections, the exiled billionaire claimed he was funding influential insiders who are conspiring to take power, according to the Guardian.
“We need to use force to change this regime, because ... this regime is unconstitutional,” Berezovsky said in an audio excerpt posted on The Guardian’s Web site. “It means that I call to use force to recreate (a) constitutional regime again.”
Totalitarian regime
Berezovsky - a former Kremlin insider who fell out with Putin and fled to Britain, where he was granted asylum - accused the Russian president of creating a totalitarian regime. In the audio clip, he said that “there is no chance to change that through elections, and [the] only way [is] to use power.”
According to The Guardian, Berezovsky claimed to be in contact with unidentified members of Russia’s political leadership and had offered them financial aid as well as “my understanding of how it could be done.”
He did not identify any individuals or groups, but The Guardian said Berezovsky claimed to be in contact with people inside the Kremlin who were conspiring to mount a palace coup. In the past, Berezovsky has said he has bankrolled opposition forces rather than government insiders.
“If one part of the political elite disagrees with another part of the political elite - that is the only way in Russia to change the regime. I try to move that,” the newspaper quoted Berezovsky as saying.
North Korea nuke deadline slips
http://archive.gulfnews.com/world/Korea/10118240.html
04/14/2007 03:43 PM | Agencies
Beijing: The United States expressed concern as North Korea looked set to miss a Saturday deadline to shut down its nuclear reactor.
Assistant Secretary of State Christopher Hill said there had been a big diplomatic push to end the crisis. He did not say what the consequences would be if the deadline is missed.
“We are not indifferent to missing a deadline. Obviously it is a very important date,” he said. “We will work with our other partners on the appropriate response.”
Hill is due to meet his Chinese counterpart, Wu Dawei, and was expected to consult with Japan.
Pyongyang had agreed to shut down its Yongbyon plant by Saturday after the United States said millions of dollars worth of funds have been unblocked at a Macau bank.
French captives ‘appear on video’
http://archive.gulfnews.com/world/Afghanistan/10118245.html
04/14/2007 01:40 PM | Agencies
Toronto: A video has surfaced showing two French aid workers and three Afghan men, who were reportedly taken hostage by the Taliban in Afghanistan.
The aid workers, a male and a female, are seen pleading for their lives on the video obtained by Canadian public broadcaster CBC. The channel didn’t air the video but instead posted stills from the tape on its website.
The French government confirmed to CBC that the people shown on the video are the missing aid workers.
The tape may be the first evidence that the aid workers and their traveling companions are still alive. However, it is not clear when the tape was made.
French President Jacques Chirac has asked the Afghan government to help secure their release.
The kidnapping came after Afghan authorities released five Taliban prisoners in exchange for an Italian newspaper reporter, who was kidnapped by the Taliban in southern Helmand province in March.
http://www.defensenews.com/story.php?F=2679945&C=asiapac
China’s Anti-Access Strategies Could Win War With U.S.
By WENDELL MINNICK, TAIPEI
Rand’s latest paper on Chinese anti-access strategies paints a dark picture for any U.S. military attempt to defend Taiwan during a crisis. China is preparing to fight a “local war under high-technology conditions,” the authors warn.
“Entering the Dragon’s Lair: Chinese Antiaccess Strategies and Their Implications for the United States” gives a detailed overview of likely Chinese efforts to deny U.S. military responsiveness during a crisis, using a combination of “soft-kill” and “hard-kill” tactics. Soft-kill methods include cyber warfare attacks and electronic jamming. Hard-kill tactics includes destroying C4ISR networks and using electromagnetic pulse (EMP) weapons, anti-satellite weapons and other kinetic and directed-energy weapons.
Attacks on U.S. air bases in the region and direct attacks on U.S. aircraft carriers would help slow U.S. responsiveness and shake confidence among allies in the region, the report said.
Released March 29, the report was written by Roger Cliff, Mark Burles, Michael Chase, Derek Eaton and Kevin Pollpeter.
Rand garnered much of its information directly from Chinese military doctrinal writings, including books on military doctrine, articles from military journals and reports from Chinese newspapers.
Much of what the report says is not new. However, the report includes ways in which the U.S. military can protect assets.
These include:
• Strengthening passive defenses at air bases.
• Deploying more air and missile defenses near critical facilities.
• Preparing for Chinese special operations’ ground attacks.
• Quickly moving naval vessels out of port before an attack begins.
• Shoring up protection of C4ISR networks.
• Improving electronic protection against EMP weapons and high-altitude nuclear detonations.
http://www.guampdn.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20070413/NEWS01/704130316/1002
Article published Apr 13, 2007
Report: Guam’s military role will grow
By Gaynor Dumat-ol Daleno
Pacific Daily News
gdumat-ol@guampdn.com
The U.S. government “should give serious consideration” to shifting the balance of its naval forces from the Atlantic to the Pacific, and beef up its military muscle on Guam as part of the shift, according to a think-tank’s report, released Tuesday in Washington, D.C.
China’s potential to become the U.S. military’s next military rival is the reason for the report’s suggestion.
The 129-page report, “U.S.-China Relations: An Affirmative Agenda, A Responsible Course,” was released by a task force of the Council on Foreign Relations.
Retired Pacific Command chief Adm. Dennis Blair and former U.S. Trade Representative Carla Hills led the task force.
The report suggested further military buildup on Guam beyond the island’s future role as host to thousands of members of the U.S. Marines who will be relocated from Okinawa.
The Marines’ relocation to Guam is expected to cost $10 billion that the U.S. government and Japanese governments are expected to co-pay.
“The United States should sustain and selectively enhance its force posture in Asia, ensuring it has capabilities commensurate with the region’s growing importance to the U.S. economy and other vital national interests,” according to the task force’s report.
“Improvements to U.S. military facilities on Guam should continue, not only to relieve some of the burden on Okinawa, but also to upgrade the overall capabilities of U.S. Pacific forces,” according to the report.
The U.S. and China now “have a relationship that was truly unimaginable two generations ago,” according to Council on Foreign Relations President Richard Haass in a foreword to the report.
But at the same time, the report’s overall message also includes this: the U.S. “should be clear that any aggressive behavior on China’s part would be met with strong opposition,” according to Haass.
And to be ready in the event China becomes militarily aggressive, the report states the U.S. naval forces’ focus should shift from the Atlantic.
“The maritime interests of the United States in the future are increasingly in the Asia-Pacific region, and the stationing of its naval forces should be aligned with this trend,” according to the report.
In the near future, the Washington Times quotes Blair as saying, the task force does not think China will become a “peer competitor” of the U.S. military.
But the report also includes partly dissenting views of certain task force members.
“China has already increased its ability to challenge American military preponderance in the Western Pacific,” wrote task force member Aaron Friedberg.
And Friedberg added, “maintaining a favorable balance of power will not be easy, especially at a time when U.S. attention and resources are likely to remain divided between Asia and the Middle East.”
The 30-member task force also includes former Defense Secretary Harold Brown, and former State Department officials Winston Lord, Wendy Sherman and Randy Schriver.
http://www.economist.com/world/europe/displaystory.cfm?story_id=8994455
Georgia gets a rocket
Apr 12th 2007
From Economist.com
Beware Russian gunships that pass in the night
WAS it a stunt, a signal or a test? A month after helicopters launched a night-time rocket attack on government buildings in Georgia’s Kodori gorge, nobody knows. As so often in post-Soviet imperial politics, the big picture is clear, but the details are mysterious.
The big picture is that Georgia is trying to re-establish control over two breakaway regions, Abkhazia and South Ossetia, which have claimed independence with Russian backing.
In Abkhazia, Georgia has replaced the bandits who were running the Kodori gorge, a remote upland district, with a normal (by Georgian standards) civilian administration.
In South Ossetia, the Georgian authorities have set up a local government in a village that has always been under Georgian control. This new outfit is run by prominent South Ossetian political figures who have fallen out with the imported Kremlin stooges in charge of the separatist administration.
The aim is to make Georgia a magnet, attracting back minorities repelled by the swaggering ethno-nationalism of the early 1990s. Fast growth and some institutional reform already make Georgia look pretty good, if no showcase, when measured against Russia’s troubled periphery across the Caucasus mountains. Russia’s attempts at sanctions and harassment have not brought Georgia to its knees; rather, they have strengthened its self-confidence and encouraged its integration with the West.
An ambitious Abkhaz or Ossetian thus faces an interesting choice: Russia’s gas-fired crony capitalism, with all the problems of the north Caucasus neighbourhood thrown in; or Georgia, and its path of European and Atlantic integration. Neither is hugely attractive right now, but it is hard to see the Russian option getting more compelling, whereas Georgia’s future is looking increasingly bright.
So much for the big picture. Russia is losing out, with a bad grace, to an upstart former satellite. But what about the helicopters? Predictably, the Kremlin line is that Georgia attacked itself to gain sympathy. But in truth the culprits can only have been Russian. Who else in the region has the military capability to launch precision airstrikes at night?
The raid might have been a prelude to an attack aimed at regaining control over the Kodori gorge. But no ground troops followed it up. Most likely it was an attempt to provoke Mikheil Saakashvili, the volatile Georgian president, into an ill-judged retaliation. If so, it failed. Since some American-inspired arm-twisting last year, Mr Saaskashvili’s public utterances have been exemplary.
Just possibly, the attack was nothing to do with local politics, but one Kremlin faction signalling to another that it has the capability to start a war if thwarted. If so, that’s bad news for Russia’s neighbours, who have long feared such stunts in the run-up to Russia’s presidential election next year. Maybe the attackers expected more impact: it was pure chance that all the buildings were unoccupied. Nobody was killed, or even hurt. Perhaps they will be, next time.
In theory, the attack should be investigated by the United Nations Observer Misson in Georgia, which tries to keep an eye on what Russia calls its “peace-keeping” force in Abkhazia (given its bias, others call it piece-keeping). The UN mission’s quadripartite fact-finding group—of Georgians, Russians and Abkhaz, under a UN chairman—has convened, but produced only a vague press release.
This week talks started in New York on the extension of the mission’s mandate. Nobody is expecting Russia to be called harshly to account. The mission will stay supine and useless, as its response to the Kodori raid shows. A Kremlin victory, then, in one sense. But the upshot is that Georgian diplomats have never had such a sympathetic hearing, nor Russia a more sceptical one.
http://www.menewsline.com/stories/2007/april/12_04_3.html
IRANIAN MISSILES CAN STRIKE EUROPE
WASHINGTON [MENL] — Iran has at least 20 missiles that could strike targets in Europe.
A leading U.S. missile analyst said Iran has acquired an arsenal of BM-25 intermediate-range missiles that could strike Europe. Riki Ellison, president of the Missile Defense Advocacy Alliance, said the U.S. missile defense umbrella was insufficient to protect against Iranian missiles.
“Iran has over 20 intermediate-range missiles that can reach continental Europe,” Ellison said. “These 20 BM-25 missiles were purchased from North Korea in 2005 and are a variant of the Soviet SS-N-6 submarine-launched ballistic missile. With a range beyond 3,000 kilometers, these missiles pose a direct threat to central Europe.”
In late February 2007, Iran launched a sub-orbit missile that traveled 150 kilometers into space. Ellison said this could mark a milestone in Iran’s efforts to achieve intercontinental ballistic missile capability.
Analysis: Don’t underestimate Syria’s military
Yaakov Katz, THE JERUSALEM POST Apr. 12, 2007
While the Knesset heard about potential scenarios for reaching peace with Damascus on Thursday, senior defense officials warned of an unprecedented military buildup in Syria and said that prevailing in a war with Israel’s northeastern neighbor would not be as simple as some might have been led to believe.
Following the Second Lebanon War, IDF Military Intelligence noticed a change within the Syrian military. Syria feels empowered by Hizbullah’s surprising success last summer and Damascus now believes it can use Hizbullah-like tactics in a future confrontation with Israel and possibly even defeat the once-thought-to-be invincible IDF.
“For years we thought that the IDF had a clear upper hand over Syria’s military,” a top official told The Jerusalem Post. “After the war in Lebanon we now know that this assumption was not accurate.”
Syria has emphasized missile development in recent months. According to Western sources, Syria has the ability to independently manufacture Scud missiles, and it has 300 of them deployed just north of the demilitarized zone in the Syrian part of the Golan Heights.
A division of some 10,000 troops is responsible for operating the missiles, which include an small number of Scud D’s with a range of 700 kilometers and said to be capable of carrying nonconventional warheads. Syria has close to 30 launchers for its Scud missiles, according to foreign sources.
Syria keeps the projectiles in bunkers at several locations; most are in a valley near Hama, where it has built a missile electronic and assembly facility.
Syria has a massive military divided into 12 divisions and totaling close to 400,000 soldiers at full mobilization.
One of the divisions is made up of 10,000 elite commandos, a formidable force that would serve as Syria’s first line in an offensive against the IDF.
Since the Second Lebanon War, Syria has established new commando units and is said to have increased urban and guerrilla warfare training.
“Syria saw the difficulty the IDF had during the fighting inside the southern Lebanese villages and now the military there wants to draw us - in the event of a war - into battles in built-up areas where they think they will have the upper hand,” explained a source in the IDF Northern Command.
Over the last year, the Syrian military has made only two major acquisitions: a number of advanced Russian anti-aircraft systems called Stretlets. It has not received new fighter jets, tanks or armored personnel carriers for a number of years.
According to Yiftah Shapir - a researcher with the Institute for National Security Studies at Tel Aviv University - the Syrian military plans to use short-range Katyushas alongside the long-range ballistic Scuds in any future conflict with Israel.
“Syria was impressed by Hizbullah’s strategic success, with its use of small rockets and Israel’s inability to neutralize them,” Shapir said. “This is a weapon that is not traditionally used in conventional wars, but can be.”
While Ibrahim “Abe” Suleiman - the Syrian national who appeared before the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee on Thursday - might be right in his prediction that peace between Israel and Syria is possible, war, officials said, was no longer impossible.
Both militaries have raised their level of alert along the border and while the IDF has increased its presence on the Golan Heights - mostly with troops who are training - the Syrians have also moved units as well as military infrastructure closer to the border.
In satellite images broadcast this week on CBN News in the US, reporter Chris Mitchell revealed Syria’s three major missile sites. One site - referred to as the “heart” of Syria’s missile program - is in Hama, where a weapons factory is surrounded by more than 30 hardened concrete bunkers that house multiple launchers and missiles. In just minutes, experts said, these launchers could deliver more than a ton of nonconventional warheads anywhere in Israel.
Another missile site near Homs contains a previously undisclosed chemical warhead facility where a drive-through building leads to a facility where warheads are installed on ballistic missiles.
These images do not necessarily indicate that Syria plans to attack Israel, but they do send a clear message to the IDF and the Israeli leadership: Do not underestimate us.
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Man jumps to death from Empire State Building
Associated Press, THE JERUSALEM POST Apr. 13, 2007
A man jumped out an office window on the 69th floor of the Empire State Building on Friday and fell to his death, police said.
Police responded to the midtown Manhattan landmark at about 2:50 p.m. (after someone called emergency dispatchers and reported seeing body parts on 33rd Street. The street was closed between 5th and 6th avenues while officers investigated.
The victim was not immediately identified. He jumped out of the window of a law office, police said.
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El Al passengers fly home after ground accident
JPost.com Staff, THE JERUSALEM POST Apr. 14, 2007
El Al passengers who were forced to wait several hours in Paris Friday are currently on their way back to Israel and are scheduled to land at the Ben Gurion Airport at 5 a.m. on Saturday, Army Radio reported.
On Friday afternoon, an airplane-towing vehicle crashed into one of the plane’s engines on the runway prior to takeoff.
The passengers are being flown in by an Arkia airplane sent especially from Israel for the Shabbat flight.
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Moscow greets banned Iranian general
Alex Kogan, THE JERUSALEM POST Apr. 13, 2007
A Revolutionary Guards general, No. 7 on the blacklist of 15 Iranians who are banned from traveling abroad by UN Security Council Resolution 1747, was welcomed by Russian authorities last week.
Gen. Muhammad Baqer Zolqadr, ex-deputy head of the Revolutionary Guards, was appointed deputy interior minister for security affairs in November. Well-known for his threats to bomb the Dimona nuclear facility, and to arrange “a bloodbath” and “a second Vietnam for Americans,” he enjoyed Russian hospitality for six days, leaving unhindered on Monday.
Teheran is using the visit to show that UN sanctions are ineffective. In an interview with Iranian state television, Zolqadr bragged about his journey and mocked the Security Council resolution, which calls on all governments “to exercise vigilance and restraint regarding the entry into or transit through their territories of individuals who are engaged in, directly associated with or providing support for Iran’s proliferation sensitive nuclear activities or for the development of nuclear weapon delivery systems.”
Zolqadr said he came to Russia at the invitation of the Federal Border Guards and the Emergencies Ministry, and that he had received an exceptionally warm welcome from Russian officials.
The official reason for the visit was “debates on border control issues at the watery border between Russia and Iran on the Caspian Sea” and discussion with Emergencies Ministry officials of “relief for natural disasters such as earthquakes.”
But some Russian opposition sources say the expert on Iranian defense systems came to discuss quite different issues that have nothing to do with fighting drug traffic on the Caspian littoral.
Officials in Moscow tried to keep the visit under wraps, but the Iranians exposed their violation of the Security Council Resolution. Russian Foreign Ministry spokesman Andrei Krivtsov had no choice but to confirm the Zolqadr visit. He claimed the resolution did not prohibit visits by the blacklisted Iranians, but only called for “heightened vigilance.”
The Foreign Ministry’s formal statement also said that no violation had occurred because it had followed the resolution’s requirement to inform the UN of the visit.
The Russian daily Kommersant reminded readers that during the debate on the resolution in the Security Council, Moscow and Beijing insisted that “harsh sanctions against senior members of the Revolutionary Guards of the Islamic republic would have no effect on efforts to frustrate Iran’s quest for its own piece of the nuclear pie.”
In light of such statements, some analysts anticipate the arrival of other blacklisted Iranians in Russia. Moscow’s potential guests include:
Key Revolutionary Guards personnel: Brig.-Gen. Morteza Rezaie, deputy commander; Vice-Adm. Ali Ahmadian, chief of its Joint Staff; Brig.-Gen. Muhammad Zahedi, commander of its ground forces; Rear-Adm. Morteza Safari, commander of its navy; Brig.-Gen. Muhammad Hejazi, commander of the para-military Bassij resistance force; Brig.-Gen. Qasem Soleimani, commander of the Quds force, an elite Guards unit that carries out special operations outside Iran; and, of course, Gen. Baqer Zolqadr, deputy interior minister for security affairs.
Persons involved in nuclear or ballistic missile activities:
# Mohsen Fakrizadeh-Mahabadi, a senior scientist at Iran’s Ministry of Defense and Armed Forces Logistics organization and former head of the Physics Research Center. The UN nuclear monitoring agency asked to interview him about Physics Research Center activities but Teheran refused.
# Fereidoun Abbasi-Davani, a senior Ministry of Defense and Armed Forces Logistics scientist with links to the Institute of Applied Physics who works closely with Fakhrizadeh.
# Seyed Jaber Safdari, manager of the Natanz [uranium] Enrichment Facilities.
# Amir Rahimi, head of the Esfahan Nuclear Fuel Research and Production Center.
# Mohsen Hojati, head of the Fajr Industrial Group, already targeted for travel and financial sanctions for its role in the missile program.
# Mehrdada Ketabachi, head of Shahid Bagheri Industrial Group, also targeted for sanctions for its role in the ballistic missile program.
# Naser Maleki, head of the Shahid Hemmat Industrial Group. He is a Ministry of Defense and Armed Forces Logistics organization official who supervises work on the Shahab-3 missile.
# Ahmad Derakhandeh, chairman of Bank Sepah.
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Canada: Terror suspect sentenced to house arrest
JPost.com Staff, THE JERUSALEM POST Apr. 14, 2007
Canadian authorities released an Egyptian citizen suspected of belonging to a terrorist organization affiliated with Al Qaida, sources said late Friday night.
The suspect was sentenced to partial house arrest, only authorized to leave his home during certain hours of the day and ordered to wear an electronic security bracelet.
A federal court said that the suspect presented a large enough national security threat that he mustn’t be allowed to travel freely. Nonetheless, the court ordered that he would not be deported to Egypt.
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