if you look at the polls analytically - they will tell you that formula won't get it done in 2008.
Bush maximized turnout and margin amongst the base in 2004. We won by one state. Had Bush won in 2004 with 45 states, these "top 3" candidates in the primaries now, wouldn't even be in the race.
Hispanics are going more Dem, so is Generation Y (young voters). Put Richardson on the Dem ticket, add new turnout amongst young single women voting for Hillary, add dissatisfaction with Iraq amongst Independents - tell me where we go to get the votes to overcome that, using the same formula Bush used in 2004?
The numbers are just not there.
The numbers are just not there.
Good luck with your new formula.