Posted on 02/02/2007 6:19:00 PM PST by Jedi Master Pikachu
GDP per cap is just $2000. Like Cuba. It has a long way to go, as does China.
We were discussing American heg on another thread a couple of days ago. I think this article bears out one of my earlier points. India is an awesome counterweight to China. I believe it will surpass China economically.
The much closer relationship that Bush has forged with India will prove one of the many brilliant moves by Bush. We have basically shrugged off the classic tension of Pakistan and India. We are putting a lot of relational chips on India.
I think it is a very smart move.
I would enjoy taking your dollar :)
China's banking system is on the verge of breaking down.
Unfortunately...On the whole India china border, there are no land resources worth of taking over from a India point of view. Tibet is a huge cold desert...
..In the modern world, the square miles of land you control is not a very good indicator of your worth...A more reliable indicator would be the square miles of cultivable land you have...and cultivable land per head is also a good indicator..
Look at the following Source is
https://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/
China statistics
Area:
total: 9,596,960 sq km
land: 9,326,410 sq km
water: 270,550 sq km
Area - comparative:
Definition Field Listing
slightly smaller than the US
arable land: 14.86%
permanent crops: 1.27%
other: 83.87% (2005)
India Statistics
Area:
total: 3,287,590 sq km
land: 2,973,190 sq km
water: 314,400 sq km
Area - comparative:
Definition Field Listing
slightly more than one-third the size of the US
arable land: 48.83%
permanent crops: 2.8%
other: 48.37% (2005)
If you look at these statistics, you would get the true picture...India has more cultivable land that the China..even if nominal land area is more for China...
In case of a serious war, Both India and China has the same constraint in terms of fossil fuels..Both countries have to import petroleum....These economies even if they are big and rich in resources, cannot sustain a military campaign beyond 50-60 days....Especially India can shut down shipment of gulf oil to China altogether....China might send navy into Indian Ocean ...but cannot sustain forever like the American can.....The war would be a stalemate......
Americans might decide the winner by throwing their weight one way or other.....
The Chinese power structure understands all these issues and they are working on increasing the dependencies in China and India economies...I don't see a conflict in foreseeable future..
In a short term China might register some gains, those would not be sustainable...Even in 62 when China absolutely had an upper hand, the Chinese withdrew from gained territory...not because of greatness of their heart..but because they know that their gains cannot be sustained...
Today's India is much different and China would not be able to repeat the performance of 62...
Easy does it boys. I will bet my money on stalemate and take away both your dollars ;D
The first aggression on China's part will lose it all its uneasy "friends". China is so low on soft-power that even a test in space gets the powers that be to protest loudly. Should it fire a single missile at any of its neighbours, the world will drop China like a hot-potato.
India's soft-power will mean more countries will condemn any chinese aggression and get the US, Australia and possibly Russia and Japan to retaliate on India's behalf. More a question of timing.
cmdJing knows so little about the Chinese PLA like all his country-men that he's assuming that they are more powerful than they are. Chine being able to produce its own weapons doesn't mean it can win a war against India. In all, its not how many weapons one can make but how many weapons one has that counts. Given the quality of Chinese manufactures, I'm not going to bet too heavily on a Chinese win.
Let's not underestimate China...I would give them a few things...China has a strong center...They have a very high amount of resources available to them..They don't always need to exert military power to get their way.....They are today sitting on this huge pile of a trillion dollars...What that means is that they can buy their way in and out of any situation...
Their central structure has a deep understanding of today's issues and they are good students...
There is no such thing as winning a war against China..No one..not even the mighty Americans can win a land war against China...Every one learned that in Korea and Vietnam...
Have you ever been in China? I have...close to three years. Don't overestimate them either. Its a mess inside, probably a little more orderly than India, but chaotic nevertheless.
You don't need to win a war in China to defeat them. SunTzu may have been chinese, but his lessons can be used against China as well.
"Every one learned that in Korea and Vietnam..."
China lost in Vietnam.
How do you define winning and losing?
China invaded Vietnam, Vietnam tried to invade China into the Yunnan province but was UNSUCCESSFUL. In other words, China was able to go into Vietnamese territory and not the other way around. In this way, China wins.
If you define victory as China having to force Vietnam out of Cambodia, then you're right, they lost. But from the casualties, both side suffered about 25k men. It's a draw.
Remember 1962? China beats India without an airforce and with much less technological weapons than what India possess at that time because Indians underestimated China and didn't think it could operate in high altitudes. In the long run China did lose in terms of international image but military wise, they did achieve their objectives.
You mean same quality of hardware that allows them to shoot down a satellite (measuring at most 4 feet) in space and it's a moving target too? It means their guidance system is accurate within 1 meter and that's on a BALLISTIC missile too.
The reason why Japan and US complained so loudly against it is because they have underestimated Chinese capabilities.
I was actually referring to the NVA-South vietnam conflict with Russian/China on one side and America on the other side...In that fight Chinese backed the NVA and eventually drove americans out...
Then chinese fell out with the NVA too..that is a different story...
In Korea also it was the chinese army through north korean proxy that fought Americans and stalemated...
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