Giuliani, McCain Have Competing Strengths in Republicans' Eyes (New Gallup Poll)

Gallup ^ | 2/1/07

[areafiftyone]

February 01, 2007 Giuliani, McCain Have Competing Strengths in Republicans' Eyes McCain's strengths lie in foreign policy, ethics, and moral values; Giuliani's on domestic issues and leadership by Frank Newport and Jeff Jones

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GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

PRINCETON, NJ -- A recent Gallup Panel poll shows Rudy Giuliani and John McCain the clear frontrunners among the Republican Party's 2008 presidential hopefuls. In the most recent test of rank-and-file Republicans' presidential nomination preferences, 31% said they would be most likely to support Giuliani and 27% said McCain. When asked to choose between the two, however, Republicans show a slight preference for Giuliani at 50% to 42%, respectively.

The latest poll sought to explore Republicans' views of Giuliani and McCain in more depth, asking them to choose which candidate better exemplified certain personality or political characteristics as well as say who would be better able to handle specific issues.

The results show Giuliani enjoys a remarkably strong image relative to McCain in terms of his likability. Nearly three-quarters of Republicans say Giuliani is the more likable candidate; only 21% choose McCain. Additionally, Giuliani has wide leads over McCain for handling crime, doing the better job in a crisis, uniting the country, understanding the problems of ordinary Americans, being the better public speaker, and being the stronger leader. McCain's strengths center on his handling of moral values issues, his ability to handle most foreign policy issues, and his ethical standards -- but his leads are much weaker than Giuliani's top strengths in terms of magnitude.

Giuliani is currently viewed as the candidate more likely to win the presidential election though Republicans are divided as to which candidate has the better chance of winning the party's presidential nomination. People are also relatively closely divided in their assessment of whether McCain or Giuliani is more qualified to be president -- though McCain has a slight edge on this.

Candidate Characteristics

The Jan. 25-28, 2007 poll asked Republicans and independents who say they lean to the Republican Party to rate Giuliani versus McCain on each of 15 specific issue characteristics [a similar analysis was done of Democratic candidates: see "Clinton Eclipses Obama and Edwards on Leadership" in the Related Items]. Of the 15 characteristics tested, Giuliani is viewed as having a clear advantage on 10 items. McCain "wins" on only three dimensions, and the two candidates are essentially tied on the remaining two.

Republicans' Ratings of Giuliani and McCain
on Character and Political Dimensions
January 2007 Gallup Poll

	Giuliani	McCain	Advantage
	%		%
Is more likeable	74	21	G, +53
Would be better in a crisis	68		28	G, +40
Would do more to unite the country	65	28	G, +37
Is the better public speaker		61	27	G, +34
Better understands the problems faced by ordinary Americans	60	33	G, +27
Is the stronger leader	59	34	G, +25
Would perform better in the debates	56	37		G, +19
Would manage the government more effectively	55	37	G, +18
Has the better chance of beating the Democratic nominee in the 2008 presidential election		55	38	G, +17
Would run the more positive campaign	50	38	G, +12
	Has the better chance of winning the Republican presidential nomination in 2008	47	46	G, +1
Would be respected more by leaders of other countries	45	45		Tie
Is more qualified to be president	41	50	M, +9
Would work better with Congress	41		52	M, +11
Has higher ethical standards	35	50	M, +15

Giuliani's greatest strength vis a vis McCain comes on the following dimensions on which he has at least a 20-point lead over the Arizona Senator:

• Is more likable

• Would be better in a crisis
• Would do more to unite the country
• Is the better public speaker
• Better understands the problems faced by ordinary Americans
• Is the stronger leader

Giuliani does better than McCain, albeit with a slightly smaller lead, on the following:

• Would perform better in the debates
• Would manage the government more effectively
• Has the better chance of beating the Democratic nominee in the 2008 presidential election

• Would run the more positive campaign

The two candidates are essentially tied in terms of these characteristics:

• Has the better chance of winning the Republican presidential nomination in 2008
• Would be respected more by leaders of other countries

Republicans give McCain the advantage on these dimensions:

• Has higher ethical standards
• Would work better with Congress
• Is more qualified to be president

Overall, Giuliani appears to be very well-positioned against McCain on many relevant and important dimensions.

Significantly, of course, it is important to note that McCain is viewed by Republicans as more qualified to be president than Giuliani. His strength on working better with Congress undoubtedly flows from his own experience as a U.S. Representative from 1983-1986 and as a U.S. Senator since 1987. McCain's strength on the basis of ethical standards may result both from his own background and questions about Giuliani's business activities since the end of his mayorship of New York City as well as the events surrounding his recent divorce and re-marriage.

But Giuliani's perceived strengths are many, and the distance between Giuliani and McCain on some of these dimensions is very large. For example, there is a 53-point gap in the percent who choose the former New York City mayor made "more likable" compared to McCain and a 37-point gap on the dimension of "most likely to unite the country."

Candidates on the Issues

The poll also asked Republicans to indicate which of the two potential candidates would do the better job on a series of 10 issues. [The same analysis for the Democratic candidates can be found in the Related Items: "Clinton Eclipses Obama and Edwards on Leadership."]

Giuliani has an advantage on six of the issues tested and McCain has an advantage on four. Giuliani's strengths are primarily in the area of domestic issues while McCain leads on most international matters.

Republicans' Ratings of Giuliani and McCain on Issues
January 2007 Gallup Poll

	Giuliani	McCain	Advantage
		%	%
Crime	78	17	G, +61
The economy		52	38	G, +14
Terrorism	53	41	G, +12
Taxes		49	37	G, +12
Education	48	38	G, +10
Healthcare		47	39	G, +8
Energy and the environment	43	44	M, +1
The situation in Iraq		40	53	M, +13
Relations with other countries	37	54	M, +17
Moral values issues		30	58	M, +28

Giuliani's biggest advantage is on crime, for which 78% of Republicans view him as better compared with 17% who say McCain is. Giuliani, a federal prosecutor prior to being elected mayor of New York City, made crime prevention a focus during his administration and crime rates in the city did fall during his tenure.

Giuliani is also viewed as better than McCain on the economy (52% to 38%), education (48% to 38%), healthcare (47% to 39%), and taxes (49% to 37%). The candidates are rated about equally on the environment and energy with 44% saying McCain would do a better job and 43% Giuliani.

McCain, who has long supported an increased U.S. military presence in Iraq, is viewed by Republicans as better to handle the situation in Iraq by a 53% to 40% margin over Giuliani. (Giuliani has supported recent calls for a troop increase in Iraq.) Republicans also give McCain a 54% to 37% edge on handling "relations with other countries."

One international issue in Giuliani's favor is terrorism, on which he has a 53% to 41% edge over McCain. Giuliani's widely praised response to the Sept. 11 terror attacks while serving as mayor of New York City is the likely reason for this -- and is enough to overcome the perhaps more general sense that McCain is better on international matters.

McCain's biggest issue advantage is not on an international issue, but on moral values. Fifty-eight percent of Republicans believe he would do the better job on this issue while 30% believe Giuliani would. Giuliani's past positions in favor of abortion and gay rights are generally out of step with the views of most rank-and-file Republicans while McCain's positions have generally been in keeping with the Republican platform.

Republicans' relative ratings of the candidates on the issues do not vary much by their religious commitment or self-described political ideology.

Bottom Line

Unlike the Democratic candidates, where Hillary Clinton is clearly the dominant candidate in terms of voter preferences, character dimensions, and issue positioning, the Republicans show more delineation between their leading candidates. Giuliani is viewed favorably by Republicans on key dimensions such as leadership, likability, and electability, while McCain has equally important strengths on foreign policy aptitude, moral values issues, and integrity. But Giuliani's advantages on his strongest issues and characteristics (61 points on crime, 53 points on likability, 40 points on handling a crisis) are much greater than McCain's (28 points on moral values, 15 points on ethical standards).

The poll provides insight into where the candidates stand among the party before campaigning kicks off in earnest -- while both McCain and Giuliani have formed presidential candidate exploratory committees, neither has officially announced his candidacy. McCain would do well to emphasize his experience and foreign policy credentials while reminding Republican voters of his traditional views on moral values. Meanwhile, Giuliani apparently would be well-served to remind the voters of his leadership of New York following the Sept. 11 crisis and attempt to capitalize on his more favorable public image.

Survey Methods

Results for this Gallup Panel study are based on telephone interviews with 441 Republicans and Republican leaners, aged 18 and older, conducted Jan. 25-28, 2007. Gallup Poll panel members are recruited through random selection methods. The panel is weighted so that it is demographically representative of the U.S. adult population. For results based on these samples, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±6 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls. 

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IT'S TOO BIG A POLL TO POST (3 PAGES) YOU CAN READ THE REST HERE CLICK

[BunnySlippers]

Guiliani is 62, McCain is 70.

That age now? Or in 2008? 72 is kinda old.

[RebelBanker]

Those are their current ages. Rudy was born in 1944 and McCain in 1936. (Yes, I know it's 2007! Neither has had a birthday this year.)

[WisemanRAX]

I've lloked at those website in question and looks to me like they're just there because they have differences in political opinion and would like to shit on his military record just because of that. I never said he was a hero, but they don't give those Bronze and Silver Stars like candy. I just said you can't call him cowardly. Especially by people here who haven't served. Being here long enough I've noticed that very few members of this site actually served and yet they comment on things they don't understand, but then again it's a free country and anyone can talk shit about anyone. I don't care if his father was an Admiral. I told you that he was offered to get released early and he refused. I bet you also think that the prisoners who were with him including a current Senator thought he was an s-bag.

[Godebert]

"I know that this will bring the wrath of many anti-McCain Freepers, but McCain would be my candidate of choice if he were not so damned old. BTW, how old is Guliani?"

If McCain is your "candidate of choice" you're in the wrong forum.

[Godebert]

"I know that this will bring the wrath of many anti-McCain Freepers, but McCain would be my candidate of choice if he were not so damned old. BTW, how old is Guliani?"

If McCain is your "candidate of choice" you're in the wrong forum.

[Godebert]

"Mark my words, they are the ONLY two Republicans that can win the general election in 2008."

If either of those liberal schmucks wins, I'll never vote for a republican again.

[Godebert]

"Mark my words, they are the ONLY two Republicans that can win the general election in 2008."

If either of those liberal schmucks wins, I'll never vote for a republican again.

[My GOP]

Rudy is a fiscal, domestic, and foreign policy conservative that supports strict constructionist judges. Not liberal.

[John D]

His sanity and temper is why he would be more dangerous than the beast. If elected president he would be the Commander in Chief. If any leader from another country remotely insulted him there is no telling what he would do.
I have one son who just returned from Iraq with shrapnel in his neck and spine the doctors still can not remove. While I have no problem fighting for our country for a just cause, I do not want my younger son to go into harms way just because McCrazy wants to prove a point.

[John D]

Maybe I should not have called him cowardly, but I can say he acted treasonously (if that is a word). I did serve, and I did know McCrazy. Do I now have a right to comment? He received those medals because his father was an Admiral and that is the only reason.

[WisemanRAX]

I was enlisted as an 11B and I'm going to be commissioned soon as a Transportation officer. I call bullshit on your last comment. Do you know that his service has been discussed by people who have been in various Armed Forces. Freaking SF personnel units have discussed him. They all don't question his service. You and I both know that if that comment was true, this would have caused a shit storm. This would have been investigated to the full end. He earned those medals fair and square. His father had nothing to do with it. You can ask his CO that recommended him to be awarded. It sucks that you are shitting on your own brethren. I wasn't even born in this country and it sucks that people are the same everywhere.

[John D]

I did not say ALL question his service, but many do. What do you think his CO was going to say, "Admiral McCain ordered me to recommend Johnny these awards"? There were many, many other POWs who did not give away all the information they had in order to get preferential treatment (like McCain did) who did not receive awards like these, but they did not have Admirals for fathers.

[DustyMoment]

Romney cant beat Hilldabeast due to the Mormon issue.

Never say never. Religion is a losing political issue. They tried this with JFK and look how well that turned out. In 1960, the claim was that if Kennedy was elected, America would be ruled by the Vatican.

[Howlin]

McCain is 70.

And looking every day of it.

[Howlin]

You are not.

[dinoparty]

Oh, I apologize for questioning all your dimwitted assumptions about the world.