Bet him 10 Euros against his 10,000 Euros. According to him the 10 Euros will be a sure thing.
Whatever "european fellow" told you that is full of it. The Socialist candidate last time didn't even make the final round - Le Pen did. I like Sarkozy's chances, and he's as much "our kind of guy" as any Frenchman could realistically be and have a good chance.
He's probably still as liberal as Clinton by our standards, but he's got to be better than Chirac.