3.3%? Not much, considering the lynch mob mentality of the administration, much of the faculty and the local DA. Some folks who can afford it may not want to lay out $40k a year and risk total financial ruin at the hands of the mob.
The 20% decline in early-admission applications may be more indicative because an acceptance would be binding on the early-admission applicant. The overall fall in demand for Duke may be masked by the smaller decrease in regular applications, which do not reflect the strength of the applicant's desire to go to Duke (#1 or #7??) or by the overall growth in regular applications nationwide. Also, does anyone know if the quality (e.g. SAT scores) of the Duke applicant pool has changed?