And that's where the rubber hits the road.
The other half of the equation is the question of how alumni contributions have fared since the scandal began.
Applications may be down only 3.3 percent but I suspect the GPA and SAT are down even more. There are a lot of kids hoping to get into Duke who wouldn't have had a chance a year ago.
The drop in enrollment is probably accompanied by a drop in quality of applicants as some people who previously did not think they could get in are taking a shot at applying to Duke. Someone on one of our threads said her student's high school advisor told them it would be a good year to apply to Duke.