> Everyone in Thailand already knows who did it. <
Not so sure. My Thai wife, here in the USA, has already picked up -- and tends to believe -- the Bangkok rumor mill's latest, which is that the bombings were the work of Thaksin's supporters.
As supporting evidence, she cites the fact that anti-Thaksin commentators on ASTV (Sondhi's news channel) were saying yesterday, well before the bombings, that violence would soon be forthcoming from elements of Thaksin's TRT Party.
[And in fact, she had discussed these predictions with me yesterday, again, well before the bombings.]
My counter to her is that the bombings could just as easily have been done by "agents provacateurs" among the anti-TRT (pro-coup) folks, in order that blame might be attributed to Thaksin.
Bottom Line:
At this early stage, and without better evidence, we may not be able to discriminate among three possible groups of suspects, (1) Thaksin supporters, (2) coup supporters, and (3) Muslims.
I am very much inclined to support your hypothesis. The idiot Generals have made some incredibly dumb moves in the past weeks, seriously bringing into question their ability to manage the economy. Thaksin may have made himself rich, but he was bringing others along with him and apparently making enemies among the sex and drug economy. Incidents such as this seem likely to distract attention from the problems of the coup leadership and strengthen the Army's support.
FWIW, TRT has denied any involvement.
Moot point. They have been saying this since the coup. It is why there is still martial law in many areas of the country. This is in no way any link to the bombings.
The only reason I can see for blaming TRT on this one is they don't want a mass exodus of tourist dollars because of world headlines saying, "Muslims blow up BKK".
My counter to her is that the bombings could just as easily have been done by "agents provacateurs" among the anti-TRT (pro-coup) folks, in order that blame might be attributed to Thaksin.
Why? The 'anti-TRT' crowd doesn't need to place any blame on Toxin. He is out of power and so are his guys. It is a done deal. If you are a salesman, after you make a sale, stop selling. The sale has already been made and paid with cash.
Muslims.
Bingo. This is the only logical explanation, although I don't understand it. The MO of the attacks, low yield improvised devices, is 100% southern muslims. No doubt in my eyes. Either it was them or someone trying to make it look like it was them. Either way, they are going to get blamed.
Stepping back a bit, since Muslims are going to get blamed, how would that help TRT? It won't since it will just make the military more powerful. Another strike against the TRT conspiracy theory.
How will this help the current government? It won't. It will force them to crack down harder on Muslims in the south which is what the insurgency wants. Another strike against the Coup conspiracy theory.
So where does this leave us? Basically, the only ones with anything to gain in doing this are the guys in the south. They are taking a major gamble on this one. They have been stepping up attacks lately and I think this is their tet-offensive so to speak. They are either going to get a lot of converts to the cause from it or they are going to have the military come down with an iron fist on them, or both.
It is going to be interesting to see how this plays out. The military is going to go into full attack mode after this and it is not going to be pretty. This is going to effect tourism and that will not be tolerated. There have been plans in the past to attack BKK and Pattaya that didn't take place because they were too scared of the repercussions. Looks like they decided to take their chances.
I will know more tomorrow once people get their marching orders. It is going to be interesting.