I read your scenario, sj, and had previously read roamer's. Correct me, either of you, but don't we all agree that the 3 were likely ok when they built the real snow cave and sheltered there?
They had been to the summit we know that.
So all that was left was for them to get down, and they obviously had to have concerns about the weather. Question was, how best and quickest to get down, and what actions would they take to get in position to go their chosen route, and what part would the degree of terrible weather play in their ability to do this.
SJ you had them attempting to decend and an accident occurring with only James left alive or at least functioning and at that location. Roamer has them either ascending or traversing and an accident occurring. This I'm sure would have been for the purpose of getting to where they COULD descend the mountain by whatever route they chose.
I don't see very much difference between you. Hope I'm not missing something.
Finally, some have speculated that they meant to descend by one route but MISSED that one and, overtaken by the severe weather, were trying an alternate one that was available, whether it was best or not. Anything at that point to get down.
I also think it matters IF the axes left behind in the "not a real cave" location belong to Kelly James (if they do) and that that would fit roamer's scenario.
Last nite on MSNBC they had an hour special on this. One guest, a rescuer said the 2 axes found in the "not real cave location" were that of Kelly James. He said that in the "real cave" where his body was found he had no equipment with him. If this is the case then this means all 3 were healthy when they left the "real cave", some sort of accident happened with all 3, Kelly being the only one left, hurt and probably in some sort of shock after witnessing the probable loss of his friends somehow made it back to the "real cave" from the "not so real cave" leaving his axes behind.
To clarify my position:
Yes, I believe they were trying to descend, to get down.
I do not believe they were "on descent" (actually going down). My reason is that one would not normally find two or more people attached to the rope in a standard rappel. By it's nature (at least, normally), only one person is involved with the rope on rappel- That being the guy that is on the rope. The other players would be individually secured and out of the way of the action.
In ascent and traverse moves (as well as down-climbing, as opposed to rappel), it is more likely to have two, or even three people involved with the rope, thereby a more likely scenario for taking two men off the slope, and leaving the third injured.
I would also attempt to refine the route scenarios:
According to CC (cascadeclimbers.com), Their actual intent was to ascend the north face and exit on the south slope, with an emergency exit of Cooper Spur.
I might add that "emergency exit" can be read as "alternate", or "secondary" exit. If, for whatever reason, their primary exit route is compromised, one would expect to find them on the second.
I believe the evidence shows they had decided not to use their primary exit. That means they were probably trying to get to Cooper Spur.
I also believe that they were in less than good conditions. It seems easier, from a technical point of view, to ascend to the summit and then descend Cooper Spur, but they stayed off the summit and traversed the face instead- That would imply alot of wind on the summit, or some lack of visibility at the least.
As a final possibility, they may have opted to go back down the way they came up- They would still be on their route (where they said they'd be) and might be more comfortable with terrain they intimately knew.
Other route scenarios would imply a high degree of desperation, as they would really try to be where they had said they were going to be (that's just how it is done).
-Bruce
Actually--It wasn't my scenario, I copied and pasted from cascadeclimbers.com.