OK... OK...
To formalize the challenge:
IF the OFHEO reports (at about 5/15/2007) that median home prices have increased in the first quarter of 2007 from the last quarter of 2006, THEN you will owe me a limerick extolling my wisdom, etc., which shall published on one of FR's housing threads.
IF the OFHEO reports that median home prices have decreased in the first quarter of 2007 from the last quarter of 2006, THEN I will owe you a limerick extolling your wisdom, etc., which shall be published on one of FR's housing bubble threads.
Deal?
Yes, in principle. The problem is, I don't think the OFHEO numbers are as accurate as they could be. For instance, they only include numbers pertaining to loans of something like $415,000 or less, and they mix in appraisal numbers with actual sales price numbers. If you can think of a more accurate housing report, I'm game. (If we can't agree on this, I will probably still be game...but I want your word that you will make a good faith effort to assist me in finding a better one).
Also, we have to agree that we will publish said limerick every time whichever report we choose comes out for the next two years.
PS The OFHEO numbers also only pick up single family homes, not Condos...which often do worse than SFHs. In short, the OFHEO tends to distort housing prices to the upside. Or in the words of housing economist Thomas Lawler "...there's a growing view that this index (OFHEO)...doesn't reflect what's really going on with home prices."
How about using the NAR report?