High Tensions between Sunni and Hizballah in Lebanon. Civil War may be imminent.

December 3rd 2006 | jveritas

[Mike Darancette]

How long will the Saudis allow this to go on? Where do the Christians stand?

[Mike Darancette]

Why would Syria (74% Sunni) want to see Sunnis slaughtered?

[Gritty]

Where do the Christians in Lebanon figure in all of this?

(from the CIA Factbook)

Muslim 59.7% (Shi'a, Sunni, Druze, Isma'ilite, Alawite or Nusayri), Christian 39% (Maronite Catholic, Greek Orthodox, Melkite Catholic, Armenian Orthodox, Syrian Catholic, Armenian Catholic, Syrian Orthodox, Roman Catholic, Chaldean, Assyrian, Copt, Protestant), other 1.3%

[Sabramerican]

Consequences!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[jveritas]

Because Syria is ruled by the Alawite Baath terrorist regime. The Alawites are a muslim sect that is close to the Shia and they have oppressed the Sunni Syrians for over 35 years.

[jveritas]

The Saudis are already supporting the Lebanese government and the Lebanese PM who is a Sunni.

Unfortunately the Christians are divided. One side is pro-US and with the freely elected government of Lebanon and the other side led by General Aoun a person obsessed with becoming President is allying himself with Syria, Iran, and Hizballah hoping that they will make him President if they succeed in controlling the country.

[observer5]

"President Bush should be on the top of this, I am sure he is."

Joking right?

[Mariner]

What do the numbers, arms and training look like? I believe the Sunni and the Christians/Druze would align against Hizbullah.

[uncbob]

Well back in 91 when we were over there and still had a very potent military with sufficient ground forces I said we should seize the Oil fields in the ME and let the mussies kill each other off

[Mariner]

This President would still get the support of the American people...and the Congress...to protect legitimate and articulable interests.

We just have to make sure we can get it done in 60 days or less.

[jveritas]

The Christians in Lebanon are approximately 35% of the population according to the latest census. The Sunnis are 29%, the Shia are 29% and 6% Druze. If th Christians are divided as they are now, then the opposing camps will be almost equal in numbers. However the Hizballah terrorist camp have the weapons as of now, not to say that the other camp cannot get weapons rather very quickly.

[jveritas]

No, I am not joking.

[Mariner]

Plus, the US and/or Israel could intervene at "crunch time" via air power, changing the course of a civil war, without setting foot in the country.

[jveritas]

Agree.

[Capt. Tom]

And with the domestic press banging on about Iraq constantly, and now the release of the ISG report giving them yet more fodder, I don't foresee Bush stepping up with any further military drive in the region unless and until they're on our doorstep.

That is a good take on the situation.

We were in Lebanon during the civil war there and two truck bombs killed 240 of our service people there. Ronald Reagan pulled us out within 4 months of the bombing.

We are not going back into Lebanon.

The Israelis are stymied because of their present leadership.(Olmert)

The Muslims are now around 60% of the population of Lebanon and that will increase.

Lebanon will fall to the Muslims,eventually.

The Government can't protect itself from the Muslims so the Infidel citizens are on their own. - tom

[JSDude1]

Very true, if Bush does't loose heart-soul then we very well could defeat hizzbollah with a strange but effective co-alition: (US); Israel; Pro Gov Lebanese Armed Forces; Sunni, and Christians/Druze vs. Hizzbollah, Shia, Iran, Syria! We would smoke them!

[Sabramerican]

US and/or Israel could intervene

The Israeli Ambassador to the UN said the following at the Security Council on Jul 19, 2006:

Mr. President, with your permission I would like to make a personal appeal to my esteemed Lebanese colleague.

Your Excellency, you know deep down that if you could you would add your own brave voice to those voices of your brave compatriots and colleagues. You know deep in your heart that if you could you would be sitting here right next to me right now because you know that we are doing the right thing, and that if we succeed, Lebanon will be the beneficiary. And I believe that most members around this table, as well as many in this chamber, including our neighbors, realize this reality.

Mr. President, this council and the international community have a duty today to help the Lebanese people achieve the goal of a free, prosperous, democratic Lebanon. The sad and tormented life of this war-torn land has today entered another sad chapter in its history. It is up to every one of us to help right this chapter to ensure that this opportunity is seized not only for the benefit of the Lebanese and Israeli people, but for the sake of generations to come.

Labanon's salvation would have been an Israeli victory over Hezbollah.

The Lebanese Government sided with Hezbollah and welcomed the cease fire that will be their end.

The US/Rice did just the wrong thing if the aim was to preserve the current Lebanese Government. If the desire was to further Islamic terrorist aims, the cease fire was perfect.

[JSDude1]

Oh and the UN/Euros now what role they would play, anyone can predict..? My take is some will side with the Govt. as mandated to, but the majority with defacto (because of hate for US and Israel) side with Hizbollah/Iran..I don't have high hopes (of the UN actually helping out- siding with the good guys ala..they once did during the 1950's in Korea..)

[attiladhun2]

High Tensions between Sunni and Hizballah in Lebanon. Civil War may be imminent.

Not until Spring. People in this region do not like the cold or rain. I predict that full-scale war will not break out until the weather warms up.

[attiladhun2]

All alliances in this region are of an ad hoc nature. They can quite literally change right in the midst of battle. Aside from hatred of Israel, I see not a single issue that can hold these people together.