Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

To: cinives

I will be happy to discuss these many issues in detail this evening.

No, I have not studied "Austrian economics".
I have studied a lot of applied economics in the place where the economy is made to run.


248 posted on 11/22/2006 2:30:53 PM PST by Vicomte13 (Aure entuluva.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 244 | View Replies ]


To: Vicomte13; oblomov

You can study all the applied economics you want but withhout anchoring them to a consistent and coherent philosophy you are like a ship without a keel, blown by the wind in whichever direction the capricious and competing forces decree.

Having studied econometrics, I can also tell you that econometric analysis is a poor tool for predicting future events. You have only to look at one example: the consistently incorrect CBO estimates on the budget deficit to know that. Why ? Because you absolutely cannot quantify the effect of something on human values. Ceteris paribus cannot be quantified, because you cannot begin to calculate the unseen workings of human initiative.

Take for example the Bush tax cuts. There was much moaning and screaming from liberals and such RINOs as McCain, Chaffee and the like, who all predicted that the budget deficit would balloon. And, what happened ? While still spending like fools on a binge, the budget deficit was cut faster and deeper than anyone had predicted. So why could that be ? Beyond the typical liberal naysaying, you cannot plug the liberating effect of x amount of dollars retained by an individual into a mathematical equation. You cannot predict in a mathematical equation the use and subsequent effect of extra money on any individual.

Some will splurge on consumer goods, some will quit jobs and go back to school, others will start up or invest in their business and increase productivy, all of which have ripple effects unknowable and unpredictable.

If I were you I'd do a bit more reading in the realm of economic philosophy and rethink your emphasis on application first.


259 posted on 11/23/2006 7:11:32 AM PST by cinives (On some planets what I do is considered normal.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 248 | View Replies ]

Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article


FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson