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To: kabar
Again, take a look at the site and form your own opinions.

I've done that. Mr. Felix needs to address this in his future research work:

Milankovitch cycles

Berger A, Loutre MF (2002). "Climate: An exceptionally long interglacial ahead?". Science 297 (5585): 1287-1288.DOI:10.1126/science.1076120

Global cooling

"As for the prospects of the end of the current interglacial (again, valid only in the absence of human perturbations): it isn't true that interglacials have previously only lasted about 10,000 years; and Milankovitch-type calculations indicate that the present interglacial would probably continue for tens of thousands of years naturally [17]. Other estimates (Loutre and Berger, based on orbital calculations) put the unperturbed length of the present interglacial at 50,000 years. Berger (EGU 2005 presentation) believes that the present CO2 perturbation will last long enough to suppress the next glacial cycle entirely."

If Mr. Felix responds, in print, to Berger and Loutre 2002, then I'll pay more attention to him and his theory.

55 posted on 11/21/2006 12:22:24 PM PST by cogitator
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To: cogitator
If you are familiar with Milankovitch cycles, you must be aware that there are serious problems with eccentricity as the causation of the 100kyr glaciations, which form the basis for Berger's prediction. His analysis flies in the face of climate history and the strong, narrow 100kyr peak in the ice volume (marine oxygen isotope) spectrum. And one does not need to be a genius or a PhD to see the periodicity in marine isotope records.

On this schedule, yes we are due for reglaciation any time now.

You may or may not know that the earth has been inexorably cooling for the past ~40 million years to the point that we are have reached a quasi-permanent glacial state at mid-high latitudes, with only brief intervals of climate as equable as today. Life on earth is considerably reduced during the normal glacial conditions, with blooms of activity during interglacials, such as at present.

The leading theory on this long-term cooling is the gradual draw-down of atmospheric CO2 by silicate rock weathering associated with uplift of the Tibetan Plateau.

However, man has unwittingly restored CO2 to the atmosphere, which, given that biota and civilization have blossomed during recent warm conditions, should produce large positive consequences for both life on earth and human society.

As I gather, your position is to invest in reversing this fortuitous development while condemning the earth, our human descendants, and the flora and fauna to a future of continental-scale icepack and a near-perpetual frigidity over a substantial fraction of the globe. That status quo ante position is virtually certain to be deleterious to the foreseeable future of man and life on earth. Glacial cycles exhibit strong regularity, and the next one is unlikely to be a pretty sight. Perhaps you ought to broaden your perspective and think about the future, and the concrete lessons we can take from climate history.

61 posted on 11/21/2006 12:49:02 PM PST by Monti Cello
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To: cogitator
I've done that. Mr. Felix needs to address this in his future research work: Milankovitch cycles

He did and I provided you the links on his site including the Table of Contents for his book. It is in Chapter 14.

If Mr. Felix responds, in print, to Berger and Loutre 2002, then I'll pay more attention to him and his theory.

Pacemaker of the Ice Ages

Magnetic Reversals and Glaciation

I could care less whether you pay attention or not. My concern is that our political leadership doesn't fall for this phony claptrap and damage our economy.

73 posted on 11/21/2006 2:43:02 PM PST by kabar
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