Posted on 11/20/2006 9:11:36 AM PST by SwinneySwitch
MEXICO CITY — "¡Presidente! ¡Presidente!" The murmur grew to a roar as Andrés Manuel López Obrador made his way through the throngs of working-class supporters gathered under a darkening sky.
"You're not alone!" screamed one woman, nearly fainting after the former Mexico City mayor rewarded her with a kiss on the cheek.
Others thrust out photos of López Obrador wearing the presidential sash, hoping for an autograph.
The recent rally in a Mexico City slum might have been a stop on the leftist's campaign trail. Except that the presidential elections were over nearly five months ago. And the courts named conservative Felipe Calderón the winner.
But López Obrador, who claims he was robbed of victory by a right-wing conspiracy, is not giving up.
He has spent the past two weeks touring Mexico in a bid to cement his hard-core base — mostly poor farmers, single mothers and the elderly.
He'll need their support today when he is sworn in as what his followers call the "legitimate president of Mexico" in a ceremony in downtown Mexico City.
It is likely the biggest gamble of López Obrador's political career — and one of the strangest.
"He risks becoming a huge comedy, a caricature," said Jorge Zepeda Patterson, a political columnist.
Others say López Obrador and his party may be breaking the law by threatening to block Calderón from being sworn in before Congress on Dec. 1.
"What they're doing is actually a coup d'etat, trying to prevent the president from taking office," said Jeffrey Weldon, a political analyst in Mexico City. "He's wading into dangerous waters and taking the country with him."
But López Obrador is unfazed.
He cites the Mexican Constitution, which guarantees the people's right to choose their own form of government.
Such a government, he argues, does not include measures that hurt the poor.
"Here's what the right wing offers," he told the rally last week, blasting recent increases in the prices of gasoline, government-subsidized tortillas and milk.
He blamed the increases on President Vicente Fox, who belongs to the same conservative party as Calderón.
López Obrador has vowed to make fighting such unpopular measures the centerpiece of the new parallel government he launches today.
He has already unveiled a 12-person "cabinet," half of whom are women. He has also announced plans to visit all 2,500 Mexican municipalities to collect complaints against what he calls Calderón's "usurping" government.
To foot the bill, López Obrador is soliciting private donations of between $10 and $3,000.
Filling the coffers of his "government" may be a challenge, however. Recent surveys show the former mayor's support base has nosedived since the July elections.
In a poll from mid-September — the latest available — 25 percent said they would vote for López Obrador if elections were held today. That's down from 36 percent in July.
In contrast, the number who said they'd choose Calderón leapt from 36 percent in July to 49 percent in September, according to the poll by IPSOS-BIMSA. Calderon's approval ratings also rose to 57 percent after he vowed to adopt many of his rival's poverty-fighting measures.
In contrast, López Obrador, whose monthlong sit-in paralyzed key areas of the capital in August, saw his ratings slide to 22 percent.
The former mayor also appears to be losing support within his Democratic Revolutionary Party, or PRD. The party made unprecedented gains in the July 2 general elections thanks to its candidate's popularity, but its five governors have since said they will support Calderón.
And while the PRD congressmen have vowed to block Calderón, they have been quietly striking deals with their opponents to pass laws.
"No member of the PRD can afford to appear to be abandoning López Obrador," said Zepeda, the analyst. "So they will do it slowly, without anyone paying the political cost."
By continuing to play outside the system, López Obrador may also be jeopardizing his chances of making another presidential bid in 2012, some analysts say.
They likened López Obrador's radical stance to the Zapatista guerrilla leader, Subcomandante Marcos, whose once sky-high popularity has plummeted in recent years.
"López Obrador runs the risk of ending up like Marcos," said Jorge Buendia, a Mexico City pollster. "All alone."
But the leftist's supporters vow to ensure that never happens.
"To me, López Obrador is like Gandhi," said Roselia Silvestre, a 55-year-old housewife, who attended the recent rally in Iztapalapa. "He's a saint, and I'll follow him wherever he goes."
Parallel universe ping!
Will President Gore attend?
Maybe we can get lucky and get a nice civil war in Mexico.
that sounds liek a good idea for this country- parallel govdenment- because those in our gov. now is living in parellel universe.
Lucky? With 10x more Mexicanos coming over the border?
Christ almightly I hope not, every time that happens we end up down there. And if the Socialists when I'm positive the North will break off and try to join the US.
(Which might not be that bad, it's only 13 million more Mexicans most of which are more successful and more Americanized then the central and southern mexicans who usually cross the (soon to be much shorter) border)
We couldn't handle los refugios!
That was my first thought too!
"¡Presidente! ¡Presidente!" The murmur ...
If I recall my Texas history correctly, a similar murmur is what led to Santa Ana's end at San Jacinto.
Obrador should be careful. And given the state of the country he seeks to lead, he should be careful what he wishes for.
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