Based on what? Your guts? The amount your guy lost by?
"What are the facts? Again and again and again --- what are the facts? Shun wishful thinking, ignore divine revelation, forget what "the stars foretell", avoid opinion, Care not what the neighbors think, never mind the unguessable "verdict of history" --- what are the facts, and to how many decimal places? You pilot always in to an unknown future; facts are your only chance. Get the facts! " --RA Heinlein
At this point, yes.
It is just my gut instinct that 5 percent of Republicans opted to stay home.
As soon as we (I) get some crunched numbers from Republican officials, I can get more accurate.
All I know is that many of the Republican candidates who won in 2002 by several percentage points, lost this time by several percentage points.
One article I read recently pointed out about 10 losing Republican candidates who, after having won squeakers in recent elections, each lost by less than 3,000 votes.
And yes, I just got off the phone with our local Christian Coalition president, and she also estimated that between 5 and 10 percent of her "flock" said they didn't even bother to vote.